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DET vs CWS

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

Thursday, September 17, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the DET @ CWS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

DETROITDET
0·0
CHICAGOCWS
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

DET DUGOUTCWS DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

DET Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB95.2
FB95.1
FB94.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

DET Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · DET LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CWS to win

43%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CWS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CWS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CWS wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYDET Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 13 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Chicago WS wins

57%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

DET Over 4.5 runs

51%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 18-for-63 (.286) with 5 HR vs. this starter, career · opposing pitcher has struggled this year (xFIP 4.51)

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEDET

DET STARTER

Andrew Sears

AVERAGE
5.4
PROJECTED Ks
96
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 17% whiffSlider · 30% · 36% whiffChangeup · 14% · 58% whiff

CWS STARTER

David Sandlin

SHAKY
4.1
PROJECTED Ks
94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 33% · 21% whiffCurveball · 25% · 24% whiffCutter · 18% · 28% whiff

David Sandlin grades poor (Pitching+ 94) vs Andrew Sears grades avg (Pitching+ 96)

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 73% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    57%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Gleyber Torres (R)hit 73% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dillon Dingler (R)hit 73% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Riley Greene (L)hit 77% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    77%

    1+ HIT

    42%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    57%

    2+ BASES

    41%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    47%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Spencer Torkelson (R)hit 66% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Zach McKinstry (L)hit 60% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Max Clark (L)hit 67% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8John Peck (R)hit 59% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Javier Báez (R)hit 58% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

CWS LINEUP

  1. 1Chase Meidroth (R)hit 67% · HR 11%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Tommy Phamhit 63% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Miguel Vargas (R)hit 67% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Randal Grichuk (R)hit 73% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    54%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Munetaka Murakami (L)hit 61% · HR 22%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Brenton Doyle (R)hit 62% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jake Rogers (R)hit 49% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Luisangel Acuña (R)hit 56% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Braden Montgomery (S)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

DET CWS

Game Markets

DET @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

28%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

DET projects to outscore CWS by 0.82 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: DET 4.80, CWS 3.98
  • Andrew Sears (DET) vs David Sandlin (CWS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AS

Andrew Sears

DET SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

65%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against CWS
DS

David Sandlin

CWS SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

37%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against DET
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

44%

Total Bases

2+ bases

61%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

48%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 32% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing David Sandlin
DD

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing David Sandlin
MV

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Sears
RG

Randal Grichuk

CWS · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 30% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Sears
MM

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Andrew Sears
ST

Spencer Torkelson

DET · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing David Sandlin
GT

Gleyber Torres

DET · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing David Sandlin
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing David Sandlin
CM

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Andrew Sears
MC

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing David Sandlin
JP

John Peck

DET · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing David Sandlin
BD

Brenton Doyle

CWS · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Sears
TP

Tommy Pham

CWS · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 2
  • Facing Andrew Sears
ZM

Zach McKinstry

DET · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 67%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing David Sandlin
JB

Javier Báez

DET · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 67%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing David Sandlin
LA

Luisangel Acuña

CWS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 67%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Sears
BM

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 67%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Sears
JR

Jake Rogers

CWS · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 67%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Sears

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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