AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDLAD vs CIN
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds
Thursday, September 17, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the LAD @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
LAD Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
LAD Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LAD LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CIN to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CIN -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CIN
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CIN wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
LAD STARTER
Justin Wrobleski
GOOD- 3.2
- PROJECTED Ks
- 108
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
CIN STARTER
Brady Singer
SHAKY- 3.0
- PROJECTED Ks
- 88
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Brady Singer grades poor (Pitching+ 88) vs Justin Wrobleski grades good (Pitching+ 108)
LAD LINEUP
1Tommy Edman (S)hit 68% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
2Freddie Freeman (L)hit 75% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
75%
1+ HIT
39%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
3Kyle Tucker (L)hit 67% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
4Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 71% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
5Max Muncy (L)hit 66% · HR 24%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
6Josue De Paula (L)hit 61% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
7Hunter Feduccia (L)hit 61% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
8Alex Freeland (S)hit 57% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
9Miguel Rojas (R)hit 62% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
CIN LINEUP
1Dane Myers (R)hit 64% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 76% · HR 27%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
76%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
56%
2+ BASES
41%
3+ BASES
32%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
56%
SCORES A RUN
3Sal Stewart (R)hit 72% · HR 25%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
27%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 64% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
5Juan Brito (S)hit 64% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Matt McLain (R)hit 54% · HR 15%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
7Héctor Rodríguez (L)hit 56% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
8Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
9TJ Friedl (L)hit 44% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
44%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
19%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
LAD @ CIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
56%
1st 5 Innings
CIN F5
39%
Game Total
Over 8.5
57%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
62%
Run Line
CIN -1.5
29%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
54%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
43%
THE READ
LAD projects to outscore CIN by 0.84 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: LAD 5.30, CIN 4.46
- Justin Wrobleski (LAD) vs Brady Singer (CIN)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Justin Wrobleski
LAD SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
39%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
12%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
50%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
- 21% to reach 5+ against CIN
Brady Singer
CIN SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
20%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
36%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
- 17% to reach 5+ against LAD
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 35% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Justin Wrobleski
Teoscar Hernández
LAD · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brady Singer
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Justin Wrobleski
Max Muncy
LAD · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Brady Singer
Freddie Freeman
LAD · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Brady Singer
Kyle Tucker
LAD · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brady Singer
Tommy Edman
LAD · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brady Singer
Tyler Stephenson
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Justin Wrobleski
Dane Myers
CIN · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Justin Wrobleski
Juan Brito
CIN · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Justin Wrobleski
Miguel Rojas
LAD · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Brady Singer
Hunter Feduccia
LAD · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Brady Singer
Matt McLain
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Justin Wrobleski
Josue De Paula
LAD · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Brady Singer
Alex Freeland
LAD · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brady Singer
Héctor Rodríguez
CIN · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Justin Wrobleski
Ke'Bryan Hayes
CIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Justin Wrobleski
TJ Friedl
CIN · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
46%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
20%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
16%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Justin Wrobleski
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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