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AI MODEL READ

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MIL vs PIT

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

Thursday, September 17, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIL @ PIT simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MILWAUKEEMIL
0·0
PITTSBURGHPIT
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIL DUGOUTPIT DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIL Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH85.3
CH86.9
SL84

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PIT to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PIT -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PIT

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PIT wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIL
LINEUP EDGEMIL

MIL STARTER

Kyle Harrison

GOOD
5.3
PROJECTED Ks
114
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 57% · 28% whiffSlurve · 32% · 29% whiff

PIT STARTER

Wilber Dotel

AVERAGE
3.6
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 18% whiffCutter · 22% · 32% whiffSlider · 22% · 30% whiff

Wilber Dotel grades avg (Pitching+ 103) vs Kyle Harrison grades good (Pitching+ 114)

MIL LINEUP

  1. 1Brice Turang (L)hit 67% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Luis Lara (S)hit 65% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jackson Chourio (R)hit 69% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Andrew Vaughn (R)hit 66% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Gary Sánchez (R)hit 55% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Joey Ortiz (R)hit 62% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Sal Frelick (L)hit 59% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Bo Naylor (L)hit 48% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9David Hamilton (L)hit 53% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

PIT LINEUP

  1. 1Konnor Griffin (R)hit 58% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Oneil Cruz (L)hit 60% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 61% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Rafael Flores Jr. (R)hit 52% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brandon Lowe (L)hit 57% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nick Gonzales (R)hit 57% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    20%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ronny Simon (S)hit 48% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jared Triolo (R)hit 47% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Henry Davis (R)hit 38% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    38%

    1+ HIT

    7%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIL PIT

Game Markets

MIL @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

35%

Game Total

Over 8.5

38%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

40%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

24%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

27%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore PIT by 1.16 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.42, PIT 3.26
  • Kyle Harrison (MIL) vs Wilber Dotel (PIT)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
KH

Kyle Harrison

MIL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

8%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

21%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

12%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against PIT
WD

Wilber Dotel

PIT SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

25%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 29% to reach 5+ against MIL
JC

Jackson Chourio

MIL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Wilber Dotel
OC

Oneil Cruz

PIT · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Harrison
BL

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Harrison
AV

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Wilber Dotel
BT

Brice Turang

MIL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Wilber Dotel
GS

Gary Sánchez

MIL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Wilber Dotel
LL

Luis Lara

MIL · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Wilber Dotel
BR

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Facing Kyle Harrison
RJ

Rafael Flores Jr.

PIT · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Kyle Harrison
JO

Joey Ortiz

MIL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Wilber Dotel
BN

Bo Naylor

MIL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Wilber Dotel
SF

Sal Frelick

MIL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Wilber Dotel
KG

Konnor Griffin

PIT · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Kyle Harrison
NG

Nick Gonzales

PIT · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Kyle Harrison
DH

David Hamilton

MIL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Wilber Dotel
HD

Henry Davis

PIT · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

40%

Hits

2+ hits

7%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 11%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Harrison
RS

Ronny Simon

PIT · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 59%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Kyle Harrison
JT

Jared Triolo

PIT · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Harrison

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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