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MIN vs LAA

Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels

Thursday, September 17, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIN @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MINNESOTAMIN
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAA
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

MIN DUGOUTLAA DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH87
CT89.5
FB93.2
CV77.3
SL85.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIN Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAA to win

43%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAA wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIN Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Los Angeles A wins

57%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

MIN Over 3.5 runs

46%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 6-for-17 (.353) with 0 HR vs. this starter, career · 75°F, 13mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIN
LINEUP EDGEMIN

MIN STARTER

Connor Prielipp

AVERAGE
4.5
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Slider · 30% · 31% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 16% whiffCurveball · 18% · 38% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

LAA STARTER

Grayson Rodriguez

AVERAGE
4.8
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 52% · 16% whiffChangeup · 26% · 34% whiffCurveball · 11% · 26% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Grayson Rodriguez grades avg (Pitching+ 100) vs Connor Prielipp grades avg (Pitching+ 104)

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Luke Keaschall (R)hit 65% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brooks Lee (S)hit 62% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kody Clemens (L)hit 65% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Josh Bell (S)hit 62% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Emmanuel Rodriguez (L)hit 62% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Royce Lewis (R)hit 58% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Victor Caratini (S)hit 54% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Walker Jenkins (L)hit 49% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ben Rosshit 55% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

LAA LINEUP

  1. 1Zach Neto (R)hit 57% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mike Trout (R)hit 57% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Wade Meckler (L)hit 62% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Moisés Ballesteros (L)hit 54% · HR 13%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Denzer Guzman (R)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Josh Lowe (L)hit 49% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Oswald Peraza (R)hit 46% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jose Siri (R)hit 52% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tyler Heineman (S)hit 43% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIN LAA

Game Markets

MIN @ LAA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

LAA F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

LAA -1.5

28%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

53%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

MIN projects to outscore LAA by 1.06 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIN 5.24, LAA 4.18
  • Connor Prielipp (MIN) vs Grayson Rodriguez (LAA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CP

Connor Prielipp

MIN SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 48% to reach 5+ against LAA
GR

Grayson Rodriguez

LAA SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

43%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against MIN
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
ZN

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
MT

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
ER

Emmanuel Rodriguez

MIN · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
JS

Jose Siri

LAA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
WM

Wade Meckler

LAA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
MB

Moisés Ballesteros

LAA · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
JL

Josh Lowe

LAA · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 51%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
BR

Ben Ross

MIN · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 9
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
VC

Victor Caratini

MIN · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
DG

Denzer Guzman

LAA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 58%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
WJ

Walker Jenkins

MIN · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
OP

Oswald Peraza

LAA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
TH

Tyler Heineman

LAA · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 58%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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