AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPHI vs NYM
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Thursday, September 17, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PHI @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
PHI Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
PHI Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · PHI LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
NYM to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
NYM -1.5
TEAM TOTAL NYM
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
NYM wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDPhiladelphia wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
PHI STARTER
Aaron Nola
GOOD- 5.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- 107
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
NYM STARTER
Nolan McLean
AVERAGE- 4.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- 105
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
Nolan McLean grades avg (Pitching+ 105) vs Aaron Nola grades good (Pitching+ 107)
PHI LINEUP
1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 64% · HR 31%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
31%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
36%
3+ BASES
31%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
2Trea Turner (R)hit 61% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryce Harper (L)hit 69% · HR 25%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
35%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
4Luis Arraez (L)hit 68% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
5Alec Bohm (R)hit 59% · HR 7%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
6Bryson Stott (L)hit 55% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
7Brandon Marsh (L)hit 61% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
8Justin Crawford (L)hit 60% · HR 5%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
9Garrett Stubbs (L)hit 45% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
45%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
20%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
NYM LINEUP
1Francisco Lindor (S)hit 64% · HR 22%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
2Juan Soto (L)hit 69% · HR 31%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
31%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
33%
4+ BASES
43%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
3Bo Bichette (R)hit 62% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
4Carson Benge (L)hit 61% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
5Jared Young (L)hit 59% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6A.J. Ewing (L)hit 55% · HR 9%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
7Francisco Alvarez (R)hit 53% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
8Brett Baty (L)hit 54% · HR 12%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
9Nick Morabito (R)hit 44% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
44%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
20%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
17%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
PHI @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
47%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
51%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
34%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.65 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: PHI 4.42, NYM 4.23
- Aaron Nola (PHI) vs Nolan McLean (NYM)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Aaron Nola
PHI SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
11%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
52%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
- 72% to reach 5+ against NYM
Nolan McLean
NYM SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
78%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
20%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
54%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
39%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
- 54% to reach 5+ against PHI
Juan Soto
NYM · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Aaron Nola
Kyle Schwarber
PHI · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Nolan McLean
Bryce Harper
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nolan McLean
Francisco Lindor
NYM · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Aaron Nola
Luis Arraez
PHI · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Nolan McLean
Francisco Alvarez
NYM · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Aaron Nola
Brandon Marsh
PHI · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nolan McLean
Bo Bichette
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Aaron Nola
Trea Turner
PHI · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nolan McLean
Carson Benge
NYM · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Aaron Nola
Jared Young
NYM · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Aaron Nola
Justin Crawford
PHI · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Nolan McLean
Alec Bohm
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nolan McLean
Bryson Stott
PHI · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nolan McLean
A.J. Ewing
NYM · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Aaron Nola
Brett Baty
NYM · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Aaron Nola
Garrett Stubbs
PHI · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 62%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nolan McLean
Nick Morabito
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
46%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 62%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Aaron Nola
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.