AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSD vs COL
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
Thursday, September 17, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SD @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SD Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SD Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
COL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
COL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL COL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
COL wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDSan Diego wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
SD STARTER
Michael King
AVERAGE- 4.4
- PROJECTED Ks
- 97
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.
COL STARTER
Tanner Gordon
SHAKY- 2.9
- PROJECTED Ks
- 93
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Tanner Gordon grades poor (Pitching+ 93) vs Michael King grades avg (Pitching+ 97)
SD LINEUP
1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 82% · HR 26%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
82%
1+ HIT
51%
2+ HITS
26%
HOME RUN
63%
2+ BASES
47%
3+ BASES
35%
4+ BASES
47%
RBI
23%
2+ RBIs
64%
SCORES A RUN
2Dustin Harris (L)hit 75% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
75%
1+ HIT
39%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
3Manny Machado (R)hit 73% · HR 31%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
37%
2+ HITS
31%
HOME RUN
53%
2+ BASES
40%
3+ BASES
33%
4+ BASES
51%
RBI
28%
2+ RBIs
56%
SCORES A RUN
4Ty Francehit 77% · HR 28%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
77%
1+ HIT
43%
2+ HITS
28%
HOME RUN
57%
2+ BASES
41%
3+ BASES
32%
4+ BASES
50%
RBI
25%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 75% · HR 25%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
75%
1+ HIT
39%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
54%
2+ BASES
39%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
45%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
6Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 65% · HR 11%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
7Luis Campusano (R)hit 69% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
8Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 61% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
9Samad Taylor (R)hit 70% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
COL LINEUP
1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 73% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
37%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
2Connor Norby (R)hit 68% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
3Cole Carrigg (S)hit 66% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
4TJ Rumfield (L)hit 71% · HR 16%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
5Kyle Karros (R)hit 65% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
6Mickey Moniak (L)hit 66% · HR 27%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
35%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
43%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
7Troy Johnston (L)hit 66% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
8Brett Sullivan (L)hit 61% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
9Zac Veen (L)hit 58% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SD @ COL · full-game reads
Moneyline
SD to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
COL F5
39%
Game Total
Over 8.5
76%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
73%
Run Line
COL -1.5
29%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
69%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
58%
THE READ
SD projects to outscore COL by 1.27 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SD 6.85, COL 5.58
- Michael King (SD) vs Tanner Gordon (COL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Michael King
SD SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
28%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
71%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
58%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
- 47% to reach 5+ against COL
Tanner Gordon
COL SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
41%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
16%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
- 18% to reach 5+ against SD
Manny Machado
SD · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
29%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
85%
Hits
2+ hits
53%
Total Bases
2+ bases
67%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 37% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Ty France
SD · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Mickey Moniak
COL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Michael King
Jackson Merrill
SD · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Dustin Harris
SD · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 34% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Jake McCarthy
COL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 34% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Michael King
Luis Campusano
SD · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Tanner Gordon
TJ Rumfield
COL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 74%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael King
Connor Norby
COL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael King
Samad Taylor
SD · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Troy Johnston
COL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Michael King
Cole Carrigg
COL · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Facing Michael King
Xander Bogaerts
SD · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 72%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Kyle Karros
COL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 72%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Michael King
Brett Sullivan
COL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 72%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Michael King
Jake Cronenworth
SD · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 72%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Zac Veen
COL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Michael King
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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