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AI MODEL READ

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BOS vs TB

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Friday, September 18, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the BOS @ TB simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

BOSTONBOS
0·0
TAMPA BAYTB
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

BOS DUGOUTTB DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

BOS Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL86.2
FB93
CH86.8
FB95.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

BOS Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · BOS LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TB to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TB -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TB

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TB wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYBOS Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 20 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGETB

BOS STARTER

Ranger Suarez

AVERAGE
3.5
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 24% · 14% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 22% · 16% whiffCutter · 19% · 14% whiff

TB STARTER

Ian Seymour

AVERAGE
7.2
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 29% · 40% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 26% whiffSweeper · 20% · 32% whiff

Ian Seymour grades avg (Pitching+ 102) vs Ranger Suarez grades avg (Pitching+ 100)

BOS LINEUP

  1. 1Roman Anthony (L)hit 56% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Nick Sogard (S)hit 56% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jahmai Jones (R)hit 51% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 58% · HR 14%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Trevor Story (R)hit 49% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Caleb Durbin (R)hit 46% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)hit 49% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Nate Eaton (R)hit 40% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    40%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    17%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    19%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Connor Wong (R)hit 42% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    42%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

TB LINEUP

  1. 1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 67% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 67% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Junior Caminero (R)hit 67% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ryan Vilade (R)hit 62% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Chandler Simpson (L)hit 65% · HR 4%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jonny DeLuca (R)hit 56% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Nick Fortes (R)hit 55% · HR 6%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 58% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Taylor Wallshit 42% · HR 3%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    42%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    3%

    HOME RUN

    17%

    2+ BASES

    7%

    3+ BASES

    4%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BOS TB

Game Markets

BOS @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

66%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

28%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

33%

Run Line

TB -1.5

44%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

21%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore BOS by 1.11 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 2.79, TB 3.90
  • Ranger Suarez (BOS) vs Ian Seymour (TB)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
RS

Ranger Suarez

BOS SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against TB
IS

Ian Seymour

TB SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

86%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

30%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

83%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

54%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.2 strikeouts
  • 86% to reach 5+ against BOS
JC

Junior Caminero

TB · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
RV

Ryan Vilade

TB · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 8% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
JA

Jonathan Aranda

TB · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
YD

Yandy Díaz

TB · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
CS

Chandler Simpson

TB · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
VJ

Victor Mesa Jr.

TB · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
WA

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Ian Seymour
NS

Nick Sogard

BOS · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Ian Seymour
JJ

Jahmai Jones

BOS · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ian Seymour
RA

Roman Anthony

BOS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Ian Seymour
JD

Jonny DeLuca

TB · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 9% against 8% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
NF

Nick Fortes

TB · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
TS

Trevor Story

BOS · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 57%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ian Seymour
IK

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

BOS · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Ian Seymour
CD

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 57%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ian Seymour
TW

Taylor Walls

TB · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

3%

Hits

1+ hits

44%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

18%

Total Bases

3+ bases

7%

Total Bases

4+ bases

4%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 57%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
CW

Connor Wong

BOS · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

43%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 8% against 10%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ian Seymour
NE

Nate Eaton

BOS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

41%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 41% against 57%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ian Seymour

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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