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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CHC vs CIN

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

Friday, September 18, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CHC @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCHC
0·0
CINCINNATICIN
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

CHC DUGOUTCIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CHC Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.3
CH82.3
FB92.9
CH82.8
FB94.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CHC Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CHC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CIN to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCHC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECHC
LINEUP EDGECIN

CHC STARTER

Matthew Boyd

AVERAGE
4.1
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 44% · 15% whiffChangeup · 27% · 27% whiffSlider · 15% · 38% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

CIN STARTER

Nick Lodolo

SHAKY
3.1
PROJECTED Ks
93
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 18% whiffSinker · 26% · 8% whiffCurveball · 25% · 42% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

Nick Lodolo grades poor (Pitching+ 93) vs Matthew Boyd grades avg (Pitching+ 100)

CHC LINEUP

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 70% · HR 32%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    32%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    41%

    3+ BASES

    35%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    57%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 67% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Michael Busch (L)hit 61% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alex Bregman (R)hit 63% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ian Happ (S)hit 58% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nico Hoerner (R)hit 63% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Michael Conforto (L)hit 62% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Carson Kelly (R)hit 56% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Dansby Swansonhit 55% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

CIN LINEUP

  1. 1Carlos Jorge (L)hit 67% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 75% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    75%

    1+ HIT

    40%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    58%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Sal Stewart (R)hit 74% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    46%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 70% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5JJ Bleday (L)hit 61% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 59% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Héctor Rodríguez (L)hit 64% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jose Trevino (R)hit 54% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Matt McLain (R)hit 49% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CHC CIN

Game Markets

CHC @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CIN to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

68%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

67%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

37%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

56%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

58%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 11.13 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: CHC 5.53, CIN 5.60
  • Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs Nick Lodolo (CIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MB

Matthew Boyd

CHC SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

78%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

67%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against CIN
NL

Nick Lodolo

CIN SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

34%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 21% to reach 5+ against CHC
PC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

32%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
SS

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

48%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
EC

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
MC

Michael Conforto

CHC · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
SS

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
TS

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
CJ

Carlos Jorge

CIN · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
ES

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
IH

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
JB

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
HR

Héctor Rodríguez

CIN · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
NH

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
AB

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
MB

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
DS

Dansby Swanson

CHC · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 9
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
CK

Carson Kelly

CHC · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
JT

Jose Trevino

CIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
MM

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Boyd

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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