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DET vs CWS

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

Friday, September 18, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the DET @ CWS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

DETROITDET
0·0
CHICAGOCWS
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

DET DUGOUTCWS DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

DET Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL84.9
FB92.4
SL84.9
FB93.9
SL85.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

DET Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · DET LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CWS to win

44%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CWS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CWS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CWS wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYDET Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 13 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Chicago WS wins

56%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEDET
LINEUP EDGEDET

DET STARTER

Jackson Jobe

AVERAGE
3.6
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 35% · 17% whiffSlider · 22% · 25% whiffSinker · 18% · 15% whiff

CWS STARTER

Sean Burke

AVERAGE
5.0
PROJECTED Ks
99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 37% · 27% whiffCurveball · 20% · 27% whiffSlider · 17% · 33% whiff

Sean Burke grades avg (Pitching+ 99) vs Jackson Jobe grades avg (Pitching+ 103)

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 70% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Gleyber Torres (R)hit 67% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Colt Keith (L)hit 68% · HR 11%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Riley Greene (L)hit 71% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Spencer Torkelson (R)hit 65% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Zach McKinstry (L)hit 58% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Max Clark (L)hit 65% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Eduardo Valencia (R)hit 65% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Hao-Yu Lee (R)hit 61% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

CWS LINEUP

  1. 1Miguel Vargas (R)hit 67% · HR 24%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Tommy Phamhit 58% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Randal Grichuk (R)hit 73% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Munetaka Murakami (L)hit 54% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Chase Meidroth (R)hit 60% · HR 9%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kyle Teel (L)hit 53% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brenton Doyle (R)hit 56% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Colson Montgomery (L)hit 51% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tristan Peters (L)hit 56% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

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169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

DET CWS

Game Markets

DET @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

33%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

DET projects to outscore CWS by 0.27 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: DET 4.63, CWS 4.37
  • Jackson Jobe (DET) vs Sean Burke (CWS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JJ

Jackson Jobe

DET SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 30% to reach 5+ against CWS
SB

Sean Burke

CWS SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

54%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

21%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against DET
MV

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
RG

Randal Grichuk

CWS · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 31% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sean Burke
ST

Spencer Torkelson

DET · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sean Burke
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sean Burke
MM

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
EV

Eduardo Valencia

DET · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Sean Burke
CK

Colt Keith

DET · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Sean Burke
GT

Gleyber Torres

DET · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sean Burke
CM

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
MC

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sean Burke
HL

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Sean Burke
CM

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
ZM

Zach McKinstry

DET · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sean Burke
TP

Tommy Pham

CWS · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.

  • Batting 2
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
TP

Tristan Peters

CWS · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
BD

Brenton Doyle

CWS · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 65%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
KT

Kyle Teel

CWS · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 13%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Jackson Jobe

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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