BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIA vs SD

Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres

Friday, September 18, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIA @ SD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MIAMIMIA
0·0
SAN DIEGOSD
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

MIA DUGOUTSD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIA Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.7
SL83.6
SL86.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIA Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SD to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 13 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIA
LINEUP EDGESD

MIA STARTER

Eury Pérez

AVERAGE
5.1
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 38% · 24% whiffSinker · 18% · 16% whiffSlider · 17% · 43% whiff

SD STARTER

Casey Mize

AVERAGE
3.7
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 35% · 19% whiffSlider · 28% · 25% whiffSplit-Finger · 24% · 31% whiff

Casey Mize grades avg (Pitching+ 97) vs Eury Pérez grades avg (Pitching+ 104)

MIA LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Stowers (L)hit 61% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Heriberto Hernández (R)hit 59% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Otto Lopez (R)hit 66% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Griffin Conine (L)hit 62% · HR 21%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Javier Sanoja (R)hit 61% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jakob Marsee (L)hit 52% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Xavier Edwardshit 57% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Joe Mack (L)hit 52% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Agustín Ramírez (R)hit 50% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

SD LINEUP

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 70% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Dustin Harris (L)hit 65% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Manny Machado (R)hit 61% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ty Francehit 68% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 68% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 54% · HR 8%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 53% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Samad Taylor (R)hit 59% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ethan Salas (L)hit 54% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIA SD

Game Markets

MIA @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIA to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

47%

Run Line

SD -1.5

34%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.56 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.30, SD 4.26
  • Eury Pérez (MIA) vs Casey Mize (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
EP

Eury Pérez

MIA SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

23%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

33%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

21%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
  • 61% to reach 5+ against SD
CM

Casey Mize

SD SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

44%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against MIA
GC

Griffin Conine

MIA · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Casey Mize
TF

Ty France

SD · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Eury Pérez
JM

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Eury Pérez
MM

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Eury Pérez
FJ

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Eury Pérez
HH

Heriberto Hernández

MIA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Casey Mize
KS

Kyle Stowers

MIA · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Casey Mize
DH

Dustin Harris

SD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Eury Pérez
OL

Otto Lopez

MIA · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Casey Mize
JS

Javier Sanoja

MIA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Casey Mize
ST

Samad Taylor

SD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Eury Pérez
ES

Ethan Salas

SD · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Eury Pérez
XE

Xavier Edwards

MIA · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 7
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Casey Mize
JM

Joe Mack

MIA · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Casey Mize
XB

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Eury Pérez
JC

Jake Cronenworth

SD · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 62%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Eury Pérez
JM

Jakob Marsee

MIA · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Casey Mize
AR

Agustín Ramírez

MIA · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Casey Mize

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.