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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIL vs BAL

Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles

Friday, September 18, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIL @ BAL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MILWAUKEEMIL
0·0
BALTIMOREBAL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIL DUGOUTBAL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIL Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.1
CH86.2
FB94.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BAL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BAL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BAL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BAL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

MIL Over 4.5 runs

44%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 7-for-24 (.292) with 0 HR vs. this starter, career · 79°F, 10mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEBAL
LINEUP EDGEMIL

MIL STARTER

Robert Gasser

AVERAGE
3.5
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 25% · 26% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 23% · 28% whiffSinker · 23% · 13% whiff

BAL STARTER

Trevor Rogers

GOOD
5.1
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 24% whiffChangeup · 20% · 24% whiffSweeper · 14% · 31% whiff

Trevor Rogers grades good (Pitching+ 105) vs Robert Gasser grades avg (Pitching+ 97)

MIL LINEUP

  1. 1Jackson Chourio (R)hit 72% · HR 27%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brice Turang (L)hit 64% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3William Contreras (R)hit 64% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Andrew Vaughn (R)hit 66% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Christian Yelich (L)hit 59% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Joey Ortiz (R)hit 59% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 64% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Luis Lara (S)hit 56% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Cooper Pratt (R)hit 58% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

BAL LINEUP

  1. 1Dylan Beavers (L)hit 57% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Pete Alonso (R)hit 67% · HR 26%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Gunnar Henderson (L)hit 60% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Coby Mayo (R)hit 53% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Samuel Basallo (L)hit 57% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)hit 59% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Colton Cowser (L)hit 51% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jeremiah Jackson (R)hit 53% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Leody Taveras (S)hit 43% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    15%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIL BAL

Game Markets

MIL @ BAL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

BAL F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

BAL -1.5

35%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.37 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.17, BAL 4.20
  • Robert Gasser (MIL) vs Trevor Rogers (BAL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RG

Robert Gasser

MIL SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

21%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 26% to reach 5+ against BAL
TR

Trevor Rogers

BAL SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

60%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
  • 59% to reach 5+ against MIL
JC

Jackson Chourio

MIL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
PA

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Robert Gasser
AV

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
SB

Samuel Basallo

BAL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Robert Gasser
BT

Brice Turang

MIL · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
WC

William Contreras

MIL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
CE

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BAL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Robert Gasser
GM

Garrett Mitchell

MIL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
CM

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Robert Gasser
GH

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Robert Gasser
JO

Joey Ortiz

MIL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
CY

Christian Yelich

MIL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
CC

Colton Cowser

BAL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Robert Gasser
CP

Cooper Pratt

MIL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
DB

Dylan Beavers

BAL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Robert Gasser
LL

Luis Lara

MIL · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
JJ

Jeremiah Jackson

BAL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Robert Gasser
LT

Leody Taveras

BAL · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Robert Gasser

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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