BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIN vs LAA

Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels

Friday, September 18, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIN @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MINNESOTAMIN
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAA
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

MIN DUGOUTLAA DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB92.9
FB93.1
FB92.8
CV78.8
FB92.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIN Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAA to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAA wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIN Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

MIN Over 3.5 runs

53%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 6-for-17 (.353) with 0 HR vs. this starter, career · 73°F, 14mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEMIN

MIN STARTER

Joe Ryan

GOOD
4.7
PROJECTED Ks
109
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 45% · 25% whiffSweeper · 15% · 38% whiffSplit-Finger · 12% · 21% whiff

LAA STARTER

Reid Detmers

GOOD
8.0
PROJECTED Ks
110
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 21% whiffSlider · 33% · 36% whiffCurveball · 11% · 37% whiff

Reid Detmers grades good (Pitching+ 110) vs Joe Ryan grades good (Pitching+ 109)

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Luke Keaschall (R)hit 68% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brooks Lee (S)hit 67% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kody Clemens (L)hit 69% · HR 27%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ryan Jeffers (R)hit 65% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Josh Bell (S)hit 66% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Emmanuel Rodriguez (L)hit 62% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Royce Lewis (R)hit 58% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Walker Jenkins (L)hit 52% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ben Rosshit 60% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

LAA LINEUP

  1. 1Zach Neto (R)hit 64% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mike Trout (R)hit 63% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jose Siri (R)hit 56% · HR 18%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 57% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Denzer Guzman (R)hit 54% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Oswald Peraza (R)hit 51% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Travis d'Arnaud (R)hit 48% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Christian Moore (R)hit 48% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Wade Meckler (L)hit 55% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIN LAA

Game Markets

MIN @ LAA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

LAA F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

40%

Run Line

LAA -1.5

32%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.89 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIN 4.06, LAA 3.84
  • Joe Ryan (MIN) vs Reid Detmers (LAA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JR

Joe Ryan

MIN SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

33%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 51% to reach 5+ against LAA
RD

Reid Detmers

LAA SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

94%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

41%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

94%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.0 strikeouts
  • 94% to reach 5+ against MIN
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Reid Detmers
RJ

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Reid Detmers
ZN

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Joe Ryan
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Reid Detmers
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Reid Detmers
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Reid Detmers
JS

Jose Siri

LAA · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Joe Ryan
ER

Emmanuel Rodriguez

MIN · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Reid Detmers
MT

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 19% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Joe Ryan
BR

Ben Ross

MIN · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9
  • Facing Reid Detmers
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Reid Detmers
VG

Vaughn Grissom

LAA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Joe Ryan
WM

Wade Meckler

LAA · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Joe Ryan
DG

Denzer Guzman

LAA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Joe Ryan
WJ

Walker Jenkins

MIN · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Reid Detmers
OP

Oswald Peraza

LAA · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Joe Ryan
TD

Travis d'Arnaud

LAA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 14%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Joe Ryan
CM

Christian Moore

LAA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Joe Ryan

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.