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AI MODEL READ

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PHI vs NYM

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Friday, September 18, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PHI @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PHILADELPHIAPHI
0·0
NEW YORKNYM
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PHI DUGOUTNYM DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

PHI Leadoff (R) vs HP

CV75.9
CT90.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

PHI Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · PHI LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYM to win

44%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYM -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYM

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYM wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYPHI Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

New York M wins

56%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEPHI

PHI STARTER

Andrew Painter

GOOD
5.3
PROJECTED Ks
106
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 15% whiffSlider · 18% · 37% whiffSweeper · 16% · 26% whiff

NYM STARTER

Christian Scott

AVERAGE
5.7
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 48% · 27% whiffSweeper · 23% · 32% whiffCutter · 19% · 26% whiff

Christian Scott grades avg (Pitching+ 104) vs Andrew Painter grades good (Pitching+ 106)

PHI LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 73% · HR 32%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    32%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    41%

    3+ BASES

    35%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Trea Turner (R)hit 65% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Harper (L)hit 71% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Arraez (L)hit 72% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Alec Bohm (R)hit 67% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Edmundo Sosa (R)hit 66% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Bryson Stott (L)hit 62% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 57% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Derek Hill (R)hit 63% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

NYM LINEUP

  1. 1Francisco Lindor (S)hit 60% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Juan Soto (L)hit 70% · HR 19%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bo Bichette (R)hit 61% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Carson Benge (L)hit 64% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Mark Vientos (R)hit 60% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6A.J. Ewing (L)hit 59% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Marcus Semien (R)hit 52% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Brett Baty (L)hit 52% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Luis Torrens (R)hit 53% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

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169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PHI NYM

Game Markets

PHI @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

36%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.14 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: PHI 3.98, NYM 4.16
  • Andrew Painter (PHI) vs Christian Scott (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AP

Andrew Painter

PHI SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

69%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against NYM
CS

Christian Scott

NYM SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

52%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

8%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 71% to reach 5+ against PHI
KS

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

32%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Christian Scott
DH

Derek Hill

PHI · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Christian Scott
JS

Juan Soto

NYM · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Andrew Painter
BH

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Christian Scott
LA

Luis Arraez

PHI · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Christian Scott
AB

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Christian Scott
ES

Edmundo Sosa

PHI · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Christian Scott
MV

Mark Vientos

NYM · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Painter
FL

Francisco Lindor

NYM · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Painter
TT

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Christian Scott
CB

Carson Benge

NYM · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Andrew Painter
BS

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Christian Scott
BB

Bo Bichette

NYM · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Painter
AE

A.J. Ewing

NYM · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Andrew Painter
JR

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Christian Scott
LT

Luis Torrens

NYM · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 13%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Painter
BB

Brett Baty

NYM · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Painter
MS

Marcus Semien

NYM · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 66%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Painter

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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