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AI MODEL READ

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SF vs LAD

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

Friday, September 18, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SF @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN FRANCISCOSF
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAD
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

SF DUGOUTLAD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

SF Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL84.9
CH85.3
FB95.1
CH85.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SF Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SF LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAD to win

61%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSF Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 20 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Los Angeles D wins

39%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAD
LINEUP EDGELAD

SF STARTER

Cesar Perdomo

AVERAGE
3.4
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 24% whiffChangeup · 30% · 26% whiffSlider · 24% · 24% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

LAD STARTER

Tyler Glasnow

AVERAGE
7.4
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 34% · 15% whiffCurveball · 26% · 53% whiffSinker · 22% · 23% whiff

Tyler Glasnow grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Cesar Perdomo grades avg (Pitching+ 98)

SF LINEUP

  1. 1Drew Gilbert (L)hit 53% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Bryce Eldridge (L)hit 62% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jonah Cox (R)hit 56% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jung Hoo Lee (L)hit 59% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Shay Whitcomb (R)hit 48% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Turner Hill (L)hit 50% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Scott Bandurahit 46% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Drew Cavanaugh (L)hit 46% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    15%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Koss (R)hit 45% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    15%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

LAD LINEUP

  1. 1Mookie Betts (R)hit 66% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Will Smith (R)hit 65% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 67% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Freddie Freeman (L)hit 66% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Miguel Rojas (R)hit 62% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kyle Tucker (L)hit 62% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Enrique Hernández (R)hit 55% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Alex Call (R)hit 50% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Josue De Paula (L)hit 51% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SF LAD

Game Markets

SF @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

65%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

56%

Game Total

Over 8.5

36%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

46%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

25%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore SF by 1.28 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SF 3.06, LAD 4.33
  • Cesar Perdomo (SF) vs Tyler Glasnow (LAD)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
CP

Cesar Perdomo

SF SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

53%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

13%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 25% to reach 5+ against LAD
TG

Tyler Glasnow

LAD SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

32%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

44%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.4 strikeouts
  • 89% to reach 5+ against SF
TH

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
BE

Bryce Eldridge

SF · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
MB

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
WS

Will Smith

LAD · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
FF

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
KT

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
MR

Miguel Rojas

LAD · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
EH

Enrique Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
JC

Jonah Cox

SF · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
JL

Jung Hoo Lee

SF · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
SW

Shay Whitcomb

SF · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 51%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
DG

Drew Gilbert

SF · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 59%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
JP

Josue De Paula

LAD · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 2+ RBIs at 9% against 9%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
AC

Alex Call

LAD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
TH

Turner Hill

SF · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
SB

Scott Bandura

SF · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 59%.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
DC

Drew Cavanaugh

SF · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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