BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

WSH vs STL

Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals

Friday, September 18, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the WSH @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

WASHINGTONWSH
0·0
ST. LOUISSTL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

WSH DUGOUTSTL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

WSH Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB95.3
SL83
SL86.7
FB95.3
CV76.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

WSH Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · WSH LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

STL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

STL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL STL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

STL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYWSH Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEWSH
LINEUP EDGEWSH

WSH STARTER

Andrew Alvarez

AVERAGE
4.9
PROJECTED Ks
99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Curveball · 31% · 34% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 28% · 13% whiffSlider · 21% · 35% whiff

STL STARTER

Michael McGreevy

SHAKY
2.8
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 24% · 14% whiffChangeup · 20% · 28% whiffSinker · 17% · 13% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Michael McGreevy grades poor (Pitching+ 95) vs Andrew Alvarez grades avg (Pitching+ 99)

WSH LINEUP

  1. 1James Wood (L)hit 71% · HR 32%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    32%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    34%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    58%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Daylen Lile (L)hit 66% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dylan Crews (R)hit 60% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4CJ Abrams (L)hit 65% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brady House (R)hit 58% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jorbit Vivas (L)hit 56% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Yohandy Morales (R)hit 58% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Harry Ford (R)hit 54% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jacob Young (R)hit 54% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

STL LINEUP

  1. 1JJ Wetherholthit 62% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Iván Herrera (R)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Alec Burleson (L)hit 69% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jordan Walker (R)hit 67% · HR 20%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Leo Bernal (S)hit 63% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Thomas Saggese (R)hit 57% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Bryan Torres (L)hit 56% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Masyn Winn (R)hit 51% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Nathan Church (L)hit 54% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

WSH STL

Game Markets

WSH @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

WSH to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

55%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

STL -1.5

33%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

WSH projects to outscore STL by 0.40 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.93, STL 4.53
  • Andrew Alvarez (WSH) vs Michael McGreevy (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AA

Andrew Alvarez

WSH SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

29%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
  • 57% to reach 5+ against STL
MM

Michael McGreevy

STL SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

60%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 14% to reach 5+ against WSH
JW

James Wood

WSH · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

32%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
CA

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
DL

Daylen Lile

WSH · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 23% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
LB

Leo Bernal

STL · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
DC

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 33% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
JW

JJ Wetherholt

STL · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 1
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
HF

Harry Ford

WSH · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
YM

Yohandy Morales

WSH · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
BH

Brady House

WSH · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
TS

Thomas Saggese

STL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
JV

Jorbit Vivas

WSH · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
BT

Bryan Torres

STL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
JY

Jacob Young

WSH · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
MW

Masyn Winn

STL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.