AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

ATH vs CLE

ATH at Cleveland Guardians

Saturday, September 19, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the ATH @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ATH

0·0

CLEVELANDCLE

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

ATH Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.8

SL86.1

SL83.6

CV77.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

ATH Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · ATH LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CLE to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CLE -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CLE

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CLE wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYATH Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECLE

ATH STARTER

Jack Perkins

AVERAGE

6.2
PROJECTED Ks: 99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 30% · 16% whiffSweeper · 29% · 38% whiffChangeup · 19% · 38% whiff

CLE STARTER

Gavin Williams

GOOD

7.5
PROJECTED Ks: 110
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 28% · 44% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 32% whiffCurveball · 23% · 32% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

Gavin Williams grades good (Pitching+ 110) vs Jack Perkins grades avg (Pitching+ 99)

ATH LINEUP

Lineup not posted yet — check back closer to first pitch.

CLE LINEUP

1Steven Kwan (L)hit 63% · HR 4%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
2José Ramírez (S)hit 61% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
3Chase DeLauter (L)hit 68% · HR 9%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
4Jo Adell (R)hit 63% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
5Angel Martínez (S)hit 61% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6David Fry (R)hit 44% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
44%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
7Travis Bazzana (L)hit 53% · HR 8%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
8Austin Hedges (R)hit 47% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
9Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 51% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

ATH CLE

Game Markets

ATH @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

64%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

33%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

37%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

44%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

26%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore ATH by 1.02 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: ATH 3.11, CLE 4.13
Jack Perkins (ATH) vs Gavin Williams (CLE)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Jack Perkins

ATH SP · vs. CLE

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

16%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

70%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 6.2 strikeouts
76% to reach 5+ against CLE

Gavin Williams

CLE SP · vs. ATH

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

33%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

52%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

23%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

13%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 7.5 strikeouts
89% to reach 5+ against ATH

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Jack Perkins

Chase DeLauter

CLE · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jack Perkins

Angel Martínez

CLE · bats S · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jack Perkins

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jack Perkins

José Ramírez

CLE · bats S · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jack Perkins

David Fry

CLE · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 46%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jack Perkins

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 59%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jack Perkins

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 59%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Facing Jack Perkins

Austin Hedges

CLE · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 59%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jack Perkins

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.