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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

ATL vs HOU

Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros

Saturday, September 19, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the ATL @ HOU simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ATLANTAATL
0·0
HOUSTONHOU
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

ATL DUGOUTHOU DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

ATL Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93
FB93.4
SL84.3
SL84.7
FB95.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

ATL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · ATL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

HOU to win

61%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

HOU -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL HOU

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

HOU wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYATL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Houston wins

39%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEHOU
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

ATL STARTER

Martín Pérez

SHAKY
3.0
PROJECTED Ks
90
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 35% · 8% whiffChangeup · 31% · 34% whiffCutter · 22% · 18% whiff

HOU STARTER

Hunter Brown

AVERAGE
5.6
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 31% · 23% whiffSinker · 30% · 21% whiffCurveball · 19% · 36% whiff

Hunter Brown grades avg (Pitching+ 102) vs Martín Pérez grades poor (Pitching+ 90)

ATL LINEUP

  1. 1Drake Baldwin (L)hit 72% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 63% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Matt Olson (L)hit 63% · HR 24%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Michael Harris II (L)hit 69% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 61% · HR 6%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Ozzie Albies (S)hit 51% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Mike Yastrzemski (L)hit 50% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Austin Riley (R)hit 50% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Sean Murphy (R)hit 45% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

HOU LINEUP

  1. 1Jeremy Peña (R)hit 68% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 74% · HR 33%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    39%

    2+ HITS

    33%

    HOME RUN

    56%

    2+ BASES

    43%

    3+ BASES

    36%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 58% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jose Altuve (R)hit 57% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Yainer Diaz (R)hit 65% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Daulton Varsho (L)hit 52% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Christian Walker (R)hit 54% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cam Smith (R)hit 52% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)hit 49% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

ATL HOU

Game Markets

ATL @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

53%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

44%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

32%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore ATL by 1.00 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATL 3.63, HOU 4.64
  • Martín Pérez (ATL) vs Hunter Brown (HOU)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MP

Martín Pérez

ATL SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

64%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against HOU
HB

Hunter Brown

HOU SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

63%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
  • 69% to reach 5+ against ATL
YA

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

33%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

60%

Total Bases

3+ bases

46%

Total Bases

4+ bases

38%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Martín Pérez
MO

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Hunter Brown
DB

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hunter Brown
MI

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hunter Brown
JP

Jeremy Peña

HOU · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Martín Pérez
YD

Yainer Diaz

HOU · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Martín Pérez
RJ

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hunter Brown
IP

Isaac Paredes

HOU · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Martín Pérez
CW

Christian Walker

HOU · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Martín Pérez
MD

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hunter Brown
JA

Jose Altuve

HOU · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Martín Pérez
DV

Daulton Varsho

HOU · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Martín Pérez
CS

Cam Smith

HOU · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Martín Pérez
OA

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hunter Brown
AR

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hunter Brown
MY

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hunter Brown
LJ

LaMonte Wade Jr.

HOU · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Martín Pérez
SM

Sean Murphy

ATL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hunter Brown

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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