BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

BOS vs TB

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Saturday, September 19, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the BOS @ TB simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

BOSTONBOS
0·0
TAMPA BAYTB
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

BOS DUGOUTTB DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

BOS Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.8
FB93.1
FB93.5
FB93.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

BOS Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · BOS LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TB to win

38%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TB -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TB

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TB wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYBOS Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Boston wins

62%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

TB Over 3.5 runs

52%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 21-for-65 (.323) with 0 HR vs. this starter, career · 88°F, 10mph wind · pitcher-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGETB
LINEUP EDGETB

BOS STARTER

Patrick Sandoval

AVERAGE
5.4
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 26% · 41% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 22% · 17% whiffSlider · 22% · 28% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball, Sinker are getting hit hard lately.

TB STARTER

Griffin Jax

GOOD
6.3
PROJECTED Ks
113
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 25% · 36% whiffChangeup · 23% · 41% whiffSinker · 22% · 13% whiff

Griffin Jax grades good (Pitching+ 113) vs Patrick Sandoval grades avg (Pitching+ 103)

BOS LINEUP

  1. 1Roman Anthony (L)hit 59% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mickey Gasper (S)hit 60% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Adley Rutschman (S)hit 54% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 58% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nick Sogard (S)hit 56% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Trevor Story (R)hit 53% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Caleb Durbin (R)hit 49% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jarren Duran (L)hit 46% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)hit 49% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

TB LINEUP

  1. 1Jake Fraleyhit 59% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 73% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Junior Caminero (R)hit 72% · HR 34%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    34%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    41%

    3+ BASES

    35%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Liam Hicks (L)hit 63% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Chandler Simpson (L)hit 68% · HR 4%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 62% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Richie Palacios (L)hit 57% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cedric Mullins (L)hit 46% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jorge Mateo (R)hit 49% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BOS TB

Game Markets

BOS @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

39%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

43%

Run Line

TB -1.5

42%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

30%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore BOS by 0.82 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 3.44, TB 4.26
  • Patrick Sandoval (BOS) vs Griffin Jax (TB)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PS

Patrick Sandoval

BOS SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

73%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

29%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against TB
GJ

Griffin Jax

TB SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

81%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

14%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

82%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
  • 81% to reach 5+ against BOS
JC

Junior Caminero

TB · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

34%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

38%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
JA

Jonathan Aranda

TB · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
VJ

Victor Mesa Jr.

TB · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
CS

Chandler Simpson

TB · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
MG

Mickey Gasper

BOS · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Griffin Jax
WA

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Griffin Jax
LH

Liam Hicks

TB · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
JF

Jake Fraley

TB · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 1
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
RA

Roman Anthony

BOS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Griffin Jax
RP

Richie Palacios

TB · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
NS

Nick Sogard

BOS · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Griffin Jax
AR

Adley Rutschman

BOS · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 60%.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Griffin Jax
TS

Trevor Story

BOS · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Griffin Jax
CM

Cedric Mullins

TB · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 25% against 28%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
CD

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Griffin Jax
JM

Jorge Mateo

TB · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Patrick Sandoval
IK

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

BOS · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Griffin Jax
JD

Jarren Duran

BOS · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 13%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Griffin Jax

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.