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CHC vs CIN

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

Saturday, September 19, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CHC @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCHC
0·0
CINCINNATICIN
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

CHC DUGOUTCIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CHC Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.5
SL85.1
FB95.1
SL87.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CHC Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CHC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CIN to win

48%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCHC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Chicago C wins

52%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

CHC Over 4.5 runs

58%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 33-for-92 (.359) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career · hitter-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECHC
LINEUP EDGECHC

CHC STARTER

Matthew Boyd

AVERAGE
4.5
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 44% · 15% whiffChangeup · 27% · 27% whiffSlider · 15% · 38% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

CIN STARTER

Nick Lodolo

SHAKY
3.1
PROJECTED Ks
93
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 18% whiffSinker · 26% · 8% whiffCurveball · 25% · 42% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

Nick Lodolo grades poor (Pitching+ 93) vs Matthew Boyd grades avg (Pitching+ 100)

CHC LINEUP

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 78% · HR 37%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    78%

    1+ HIT

    44%

    2+ HITS

    37%

    HOME RUN

    60%

    2+ BASES

    49%

    3+ BASES

    42%

    4+ BASES

    51%

    RBI

    28%

    2+ RBIs

    65%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Alex Bregman (R)hit 69% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 73% · HR 29%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    54%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    33%

    4+ BASES

    48%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Tyrone Taylor (R)hit 69% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nico Hoerner (R)hit 69% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Michael Busch (L)hit 64% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Carson Kelly (R)hit 64% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Matt Shaw (R)hit 60% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Dansby Swansonhit 61% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

CIN LINEUP

  1. 1Dane Myers (R)hit 70% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 80% · HR 30%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    80%

    1+ HIT

    46%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    60%

    2+ BASES

    46%

    3+ BASES

    37%

    4+ BASES

    47%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    62%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Sal Stewart (R)hit 77% · HR 28%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    77%

    1+ HIT

    41%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    56%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    48%

    RBI

    26%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 65% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 65% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Juan Brito (S)hit 66% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7JJ Bleday (L)hit 61% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Matt McLain (R)hit 56% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)hit 54% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CHC CIN

Game Markets

CHC @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CHC to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

74%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

73%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

33%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

65%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

60%

THE READ

CHC projects to outscore CIN by 0.55 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CHC 6.37, CIN 5.81
  • Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs Nick Lodolo (CIN)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
MB

Matthew Boyd

CHC SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

60%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

79%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

67%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 48% to reach 5+ against CIN
NL

Nick Lodolo

CIN SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

45%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 21% to reach 5+ against CHC
PC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

37%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

46%

Total Bases

2+ bases

64%

Total Bases

3+ bases

52%

Total Bases

4+ bases

44%

RBIs

1+ RBI

53%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

29%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
EC

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

83%

Hits

2+ hits

49%

Total Bases

2+ bases

64%

Total Bases

3+ bases

49%

Total Bases

4+ bases

39%

RBIs

1+ RBI

48%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 39% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
SS

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
SS

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

80%

Hits

2+ hits

43%

Total Bases

2+ bases

60%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

50%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

26%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 26% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
ES

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
AB

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
TT

Tyrone Taylor

CHC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
DM

Dane Myers

CIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
NH

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
TS

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
MB

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
JB

Juan Brito

CIN · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
DS

Dansby Swanson

CHC · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 9
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
CK

Carson Kelly

CHC · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
JB

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
MS

Matt Shaw

CHC · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 70%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Nick Lodolo
MM

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 70%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
KH

Ke'Bryan Hayes

CIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 70%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Boyd

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.