AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

DET vs CWS

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

Saturday, September 19, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the DET @ CWS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

DETROITDET

0·0

CHICAGOCWS

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

DET Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.7

SL85.3

CH86.2

FB92.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

DET Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · DET LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CWS to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CWS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CWS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CWS wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYDET Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEDET

LINEUP EDGEDET

DET STARTER

Troy Melton

AVERAGE

3.9
PROJECTED Ks: 103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 18% whiffCutter · 22% · 21% whiffSlider · 17% · 33% whiff

CWS STARTER

Davis Martin

SHAKY

3.3
PROJECTED Ks: 85
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 25% whiffSinker · 19% · 7% whiffChangeup · 14% · 13% whiff

Davis Martin grades poor (Pitching+ 85) vs Troy Melton grades avg (Pitching+ 103)

DET LINEUP

1Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 70% · HR 12%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
2Hao-Yu Lee (R)hit 65% · HR 12%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
3Colt Keith (L)hit 66% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
4Riley Greene (L)hit 70% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
5Dillon Dingler (R)hit 64% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
6Max Clark (L)hit 63% · HR 8%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
7Ben Malgeri (R)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
8Brett Callahan (L)hit 56% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
9John Peck (R)hit 51% · HR 7%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN

CWS LINEUP

1Sam Antonacci (L)hit 64% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
2Kyle Teel (L)hit 57% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
3Miguel Vargas (R)hit 63% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
4Munetaka Murakami (L)hit 56% · HR 25%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
5Andrew Benintendi (L)hit 58% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
6Colson Montgomery (L)hit 51% · HR 17%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
7Chase Meidroth (R)hit 57% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
8Braden Montgomery (S)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
9Brenton Doyle (R)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

DET CWS

Game Markets

DET @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

29%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

DET projects to outscore CWS by 0.81 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: DET 5.03, CWS 4.22
Troy Melton (DET) vs Davis Martin (CWS)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Troy Melton

DET SP · vs. CWS

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

63%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
36% to reach 5+ against CWS

Davis Martin

CWS SP · vs. DET

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

33%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
22% to reach 5+ against DET

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Troy Melton

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Troy Melton

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Davis Martin

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Davis Martin

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Davis Martin

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Troy Melton

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Davis Martin

Colt Keith

DET · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Davis Martin

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Troy Melton

Kyle Teel

CWS · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing Troy Melton

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Davis Martin

Andrew Benintendi

CWS · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Troy Melton

Ben Malgeri

DET · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Davis Martin

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 62%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Troy Melton

Brett Callahan

DET · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 62%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Davis Martin

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 62%.

Batting 8 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Troy Melton

Brenton Doyle

CWS · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 62%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Troy Melton

John Peck

DET · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Davis Martin

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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