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AI MODEL READ

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KC vs PIT

Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Saturday, September 19, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the KC @ PIT simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

KANSAS CITYKC
0·0
PITTSBURGHPIT
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

KC DUGOUTPIT DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

KC Leadoff (R) vs HP

CV76.8
FB95

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

KC Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · KC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PIT to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PIT -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PIT

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PIT wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYKC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 12 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

KC STARTER

Noah Cameron

AVERAGE
5.8
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 24% · 17% whiffCutter · 21% · 22% whiffChangeup · 21% · 36% whiff

PIT STARTER

Bubba Chandler

GOOD
3.5
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 48% · 22% whiffSlider · 21% · 24% whiffChangeup · 15% · 25% whiff

Bubba Chandler grades good (Pitching+ 105) vs Noah Cameron grades avg (Pitching+ 105)

KC LINEUP

  1. 1Carter Jensen (L)hit 64% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)hit 73% · HR 17%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 73% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Vinnie Pasquantino (L)hit 64% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Michael Massey (L)hit 64% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nick Loftin (R)hit 57% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7John Rave (L)hit 59% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Kyle Isbel (L)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Isaac Collins (S)hit 51% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

PIT LINEUP

  1. 1Konnor Griffin (R)hit 65% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Oneil Cruz (L)hit 69% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 67% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Rafael Flores Jr. (R)hit 66% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brandon Lowe (L)hit 65% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nick Gonzales (R)hit 62% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ryan O'Hearn (L)hit 58% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Ronny Simon (S)hit 52% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jake Mangum (S)hit 55% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

KC PIT

Game Markets

KC @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

KC to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

55%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

30%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

52%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

KC projects to outscore PIT by 0.80 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 5.15, PIT 4.35
  • Noah Cameron (KC) vs Bubba Chandler (PIT)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
NC

Noah Cameron

KC SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

53%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 73% to reach 5+ against PIT
BC

Bubba Chandler

PIT SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

33%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against KC
JC

Jac Caglianone

KC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
RJ

Rafael Flores Jr.

PIT · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Noah Cameron
OC

Oneil Cruz

PIT · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Noah Cameron
BJ

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
CJ

Carter Jensen

KC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
BL

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Noah Cameron
VP

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
BR

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 28% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Facing Noah Cameron
JR

John Rave

KC · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
KG

Konnor Griffin

PIT · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Noah Cameron
MM

Michael Massey

KC · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
NG

Nick Gonzales

PIT · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Noah Cameron
RO

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Noah Cameron
NL

Nick Loftin

KC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
JM

Jake Mangum

PIT · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Noah Cameron
KI

Kyle Isbel

KC · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bubba Chandler
RS

Ronny Simon

PIT · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Noah Cameron
IC

Isaac Collins

KC · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bubba Chandler

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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