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MIN vs LAA

Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels

Saturday, September 19, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIN @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MINNESOTAMIN
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAA
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIN DUGOUTLAA DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB92.8
SL85.6
SL84.2
SL83.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIN Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAA to win

39%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAA wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIN Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Los Angeles A wins

61%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

MIN STARTER

Dean Kremer

SHAKY
4.6
PROJECTED Ks
87
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 28% · 18% whiffSplit-Finger · 26% · 39% whiffCutter · 17% · 36% whiff

LAA STARTER

Ryan Johnson

SHAKY
4.3
PROJECTED Ks
87
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 38% · 24% whiffSweeper · 22% · 30% whiffSplit-Finger · 21% · 32% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

Ryan Johnson grades poor (Pitching+ 87) vs Dean Kremer grades poor (Pitching+ 87)

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Luke Keaschall (R)hit 64% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Austin Martin (R)hit 56% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Ryan Jeffers (R)hit 61% · HR 12%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Josh Bell (S)hit 64% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brooks Lee (S)hit 57% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Royce Lewis (R)hit 56% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Victor Caratini (S)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Walker Jenkins (L)hit 49% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ryan Kreidler (R)hit 48% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

LAA LINEUP

  1. 1Zach Neto (R)hit 61% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mike Trout (R)hit 59% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Wade Meckler (L)hit 62% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 54% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Moisés Ballesteros (L)hit 55% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Denzer Guzman (R)hit 51% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Josh Lowe (L)hit 48% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jose Siri (R)hit 48% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tyler Heineman (S)hit 43% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    17%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    14%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIN LAA

Game Markets

MIN @ LAA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

LAA F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

61%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

64%

Run Line

LAA -1.5

26%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

59%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

MIN projects to outscore LAA by 1.41 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIN 5.80, LAA 4.39
  • Dean Kremer (MIN) vs Ryan Johnson (LAA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DK

Dean Kremer

MIN SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 50% to reach 5+ against LAA
RJ

Ryan Johnson

LAA SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

70%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

79%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

68%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against MIN
ZN

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Dean Kremer
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 8% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
MT

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Dean Kremer
RJ

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 8% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
WM

Wade Meckler

LAA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Dean Kremer
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 10% against 8% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 9% against 8% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
JS

Jose Siri

LAA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dean Kremer
JL

Josh Lowe

LAA · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Dean Kremer
AM

Austin Martin

MIN · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
VG

Vaughn Grissom

LAA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dean Kremer
MB

Moisés Ballesteros

LAA · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Dean Kremer
VC

Victor Caratini

MIN · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
DG

Denzer Guzman

LAA · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 57%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dean Kremer
WJ

Walker Jenkins

MIN · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 57%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
RK

Ryan Kreidler

MIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 57%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
TH

Tyler Heineman

LAA · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

18%

Total Bases

3+ bases

8%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

14%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 57%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dean Kremer

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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