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AI MODEL READ

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PHI vs NYM

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Saturday, September 19, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PHI @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PHILADELPHIAPHI
1·0
NEW YORKNYM
TOP 10-00 OUT

FIELD

PHI DUGOUTNYM DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

PHI Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB92

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

PHI Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · PHI LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYM to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYM -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYM

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYM wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYPHI Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 1

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPHI
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

PHI STARTER

Cristopher Sánchez

GOOD
8.4
PROJECTED Ks
113
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 44% · 12% whiffChangeup · 37% · 46% whiffSlider · 19% · 44% whiff

NYM STARTER

Jonah Tong

SHAKY
5.0
PROJECTED Ks
91
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 44% · 25% whiffChangeup · 28% · 33% whiffCutter · 20% · 26% whiff

Jonah Tong grades poor (Pitching+ 91) vs Cristopher Sánchez grades good (Pitching+ 113)

PHI LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 62% · HR 30%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Trea Turner (R)hit 61% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Harper (L)hit 67% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Arraez (L)hit 67% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Alec Bohm (R)hit 60% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Bryson Stott (L)hit 56% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brandon Marsh (L)hit 60% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Justin Crawford (L)hit 56% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

NYM LINEUP

  1. 1Francisco Lindor (S)hit 64% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Juan Soto (L)hit 68% · HR 25%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bo Bichette (R)hit 63% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Carson Benge (L)hit 62% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5A.J. Ewing (L)hit 58% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Marcus Semien (R)hit 54% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brett Baty (L)hit 58% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Francisco Alvarez (R)hit 55% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ronny Mauriciohit 46% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PHI NYM

Game Markets

PHI @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

31%

Game Total

Over 8.5

36%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

39%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

23%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

24%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore NYM by 1.31 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PHI 4.42, NYM 3.11
  • Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs Jonah Tong (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CS

Cristopher Sánchez

PHI SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

48%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

98%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.4 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against NYM
JT

Jonah Tong

NYM SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 57% to reach 5+ against PHI
KS

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Jonah Tong
JS

Juan Soto

NYM · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
BH

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jonah Tong
FL

Francisco Lindor

NYM · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
LA

Luis Arraez

PHI · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jonah Tong
FA

Francisco Alvarez

NYM · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
CB

Carson Benge

NYM · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
BB

Bo Bichette

NYM · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
BM

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jonah Tong
TT

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jonah Tong
AB

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jonah Tong
BB

Brett Baty

NYM · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
AE

A.J. Ewing

NYM · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
JC

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jonah Tong
BS

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jonah Tong
MS

Marcus Semien

NYM · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
JR

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jonah Tong
RM

Ronny Mauricio

NYM · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 62%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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