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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

SEA vs COL

Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies

Saturday, September 19, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SEA @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SEATTLESEA
0·0
COLORADOCOL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

SEA DUGOUTCOL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

SEA Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL84.6
CH88.2
SL86

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SEA Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SEA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

COL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

COL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL COL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

COL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSEA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESEA
LINEUP EDGESEA

SEA STARTER

Kade Anderson

AVERAGE
3.4
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 42% · 18% whiffSlider · 26% · 23% whiffChangeup · 18% · 27% whiff

COL STARTER

Tomoyuki Sugano

SHAKY
2.0
PROJECTED Ks
89
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Split-Finger · 21% · 31% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 21% · 17% whiffSinker · 19% · 6% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball, Sinker are getting hit hard lately.

Tomoyuki Sugano grades poor (Pitching+ 89) vs Kade Anderson grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

SEA LINEUP

  1. 1J.P. Crawford (L)hit 70% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    57%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Randy Arozarena (R)hit 77% · HR 30%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    77%

    1+ HIT

    43%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    57%

    2+ BASES

    43%

    3+ BASES

    34%

    4+ BASES

    47%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    63%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dominic Canzone (L)hit 76% · HR 29%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    76%

    1+ HIT

    42%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    57%

    2+ BASES

    43%

    3+ BASES

    34%

    4+ BASES

    50%

    RBI

    26%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Cal Raleigh (S)hit 69% · HR 30%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    47%

    RBI

    26%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Julio Rodríguez (R)hit 74% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Josh Naylor (L)hit 72% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Michael Arroyo (R)hit 65% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Lazaro Montes (L)hit 63% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Weston Wilson (R)hit 60% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

COL LINEUP

  1. 1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 72% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Connor Norby (R)hit 65% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3TJ Rumfield (L)hit 69% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Hunter Goodman (R)hit 64% · HR 31%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Cole Carrigg (S)hit 60% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kyle Karros (R)hit 63% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Mickey Moniak (L)hit 63% · HR 24%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Zac Veen (L)hit 55% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ezequiel Tovar (R)hit 52% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SEA COL

Game Markets

SEA @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

35%

Game Total

Over 8.5

73%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

72%

Run Line

COL -1.5

26%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

69%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

53%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore COL by 1.57 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SEA 6.76, COL 5.19
  • Kade Anderson (SEA) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (COL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KA

Kade Anderson

SEA SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

21%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 24% to reach 5+ against COL
TS

Tomoyuki Sugano

COL SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

34%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.0 strikeouts
  • 5% to reach 5+ against SEA
HG

Hunter Goodman

COL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Kade Anderson
CR

Cal Raleigh

SEA · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

27%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
DC

Dominic Canzone

SEA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

80%

Hits

2+ hits

44%

Total Bases

2+ bases

61%

Total Bases

3+ bases

45%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

52%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

27%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
RA

Randy Arozarena

SEA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

45%

Total Bases

2+ bases

61%

Total Bases

3+ bases

45%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

48%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
MM

Mickey Moniak

COL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kade Anderson
JR

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
JM

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kade Anderson
JN

Josh Naylor

SEA · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
JC

J.P. Crawford

SEA · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
TR

TJ Rumfield

COL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kade Anderson
CN

Connor Norby

COL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kade Anderson
MA

Michael Arroyo

SEA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
LM

Lazaro Montes

SEA · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
KK

Kyle Karros

COL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Kade Anderson
CC

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 69%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Kade Anderson
WW

Weston Wilson

SEA · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 69%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
ZV

Zac Veen

COL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 69%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kade Anderson
ET

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 69%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Kade Anderson

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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