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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

SF vs LAD

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

Saturday, September 19, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SF @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN FRANCISCOSF
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAD
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

SF DUGOUTLAD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

SF Leadoff (R) vs HP

CV77.4
FB93.9
CV78

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SF Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SF LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAD to win

68%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSF Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Los Angeles D wins

32%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAD
LINEUP EDGELAD

SF STARTER

Yunior Marte

SHAKY
3.0
PROJECTED Ks
85
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 52% · 9% whiffSlider · 38% · 34% whiff

LAD STARTER

Tarik Skubal

ELITE
8.3
PROJECTED Ks
121
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 37% · 25% whiffChangeup · 26% · 47% whiffSinker · 18% · 18% whiff

Tarik Skubal grades elite (Pitching+ 121) vs Yunior Marte grades poor (Pitching+ 85)

SF LINEUP

  1. 1Jonah Cox (R)hit 52% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Turner Hill (L)hit 50% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Victor Bericotohit 54% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jung Hoo Lee (L)hit 56% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    20%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brett Harris (R)hit 43% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    15%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    18%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Shay Whitcomb (R)hit 45% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    18%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Andrew Knizner (R)hit 40% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    40%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    17%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    13%

    RBI

    3%

    2+ RBIs

    16%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Osleivis Basabe (R)hit 41% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    41%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    14%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    18%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Koss (R)hit 42% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    42%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    14%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    19%

    SCORES A RUN

LAD LINEUP

  1. 1Mookie Betts (R)hit 68% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Freddie Freeman (L)hit 72% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Will Smith (R)hit 67% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Max Muncy (L)hit 64% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 68% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kyle Tucker (L)hit 62% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Josue De Paula (L)hit 57% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Tommy Edman (S)hit 58% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Alex Freeland (S)hit 56% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SF LAD

Game Markets

SF @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

78%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

67%

Game Total

Over 8.5

32%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

61%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

13%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

49%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore SF by 2.67 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SF 2.21, LAD 4.88
  • Yunior Marte (SF) vs Tarik Skubal (LAD)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
YM

Yunior Marte

SF SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

65%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

77%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

64%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against LAD
TS

Tarik Skubal

LAD SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

47%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

81%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

36%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

22%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.3 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against SF
MM

Max Muncy

LAD · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Yunior Marte
FF

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Yunior Marte
TH

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yunior Marte
WS

Will Smith

LAD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yunior Marte
MB

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yunior Marte
KT

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yunior Marte
VB

Victor Bericoto

SF · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
JP

Josue De Paula

LAD · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Yunior Marte
TE

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 28% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yunior Marte
AF

Alex Freeland

LAD · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 27% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yunior Marte
JL

Jung Hoo Lee

SF · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
JC

Jonah Cox

SF · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 58%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
SW

Shay Whitcomb

SF · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 10%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
TH

Turner Hill

SF · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 58%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
BH

Brett Harris

SF · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 58%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

44%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 8% against 10%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
OB

Osleivis Basabe

SF · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

43%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 43% against 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
AK

Andrew Knizner

SF · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

42%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

18%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

13%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 42% against 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Tarik Skubal

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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