AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTOR vs TEX
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers
Saturday, September 19, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TOR @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TOR Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TOR Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TOR LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TEX to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TEX -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TEX
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TEX wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
TOR STARTER
José Soriano
GOOD- 5.2
- PROJECTED Ks
- 105
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
TEX STARTER
Cal Quantrill
AVERAGE- 2.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 96
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Cal Quantrill grades avg (Pitching+ 96) vs José Soriano grades good (Pitching+ 105)
TOR LINEUP
1Brett Bateman (L)hit 70% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
2Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)hit 68% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
3Alejandro Kirk (R)hit 66% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
4George Springer (R)hit 70% · HR 19%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
5Nathan Lukes (L)hit 65% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Kazuma Okamoto (R)hit 62% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
7Josh Smith (L)hit 57% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
8Andrés Giménez (L)hit 57% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
9Myles Straw (R)hit 58% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
TEX LINEUP
1Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 59% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
2Corey Seager (L)hit 60% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
3Josh Jung (R)hit 62% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
4Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 56% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
5Wyatt Langford (R)hit 60% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
6Jake Burger (R)hit 56% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
7Nicky Lopez (L)hit 53% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
8Danny Jansen (R)hit 42% · HR 9%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
42%
1+ HIT
9%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
20%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
9Evan Carter (L)hit 39% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
39%
1+ HIT
9%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
18%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TOR @ TEX · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
56%
1st 5 Innings
TEX F5
36%
Game Total
Over 8.5
40%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
45%
Run Line
TEX -1.5
27%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
42%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
31%
THE READ
TOR projects to outscore TEX by 0.78 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TOR 4.37, TEX 3.58
- José Soriano (TOR) vs Cal Quantrill (TEX)
- Run on confirmed lineups
José Soriano
TOR SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
55%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
19%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
38%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
25%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
- 60% to reach 5+ against TEX
Cal Quantrill
TEX SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
81%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
14%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.5 strikeouts
- 10% to reach 5+ against TOR
Kazuma Okamoto
TOR · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Wyatt Langford
TEX · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing José Soriano
George Springer
TOR · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Brett Bateman
TOR · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Corey Seager
TEX · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing José Soriano
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Jake Burger
TEX · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing José Soriano
Alejandro Kirk
TOR · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Nathan Lukes
TOR · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Josh Jung
TEX · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing José Soriano
Ezequiel Duran
TEX · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing José Soriano
Myles Straw
TOR · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Josh Smith
TOR · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Andrés Giménez
TOR · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Brandon Nimmo
TEX · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing José Soriano
Nicky Lopez
TEX · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 62%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing José Soriano
Danny Jansen
TEX · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
44%
Hits
2+ hits
9%
Total Bases
2+ bases
21%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 9% against 12%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing José Soriano
Evan Carter
TEX · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
41%
Hits
2+ hits
9%
Total Bases
2+ bases
19%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 41% against 62%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing José Soriano
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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