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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

WSH vs STL

Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals

Saturday, September 19, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the WSH @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

WASHINGTONWSH
0·0
ST. LOUISSTL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

WSH DUGOUTSTL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

WSH Leadoff (R) vs HP

CT90.2
SL85.7
FB93.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

WSH Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · WSH LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

STL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

STL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL STL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

STL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYWSH Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESTL
LINEUP EDGEWSH

WSH STARTER

Jake Irvin

SHAKY
3.8
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 31% · 23% whiffCurveball · 23% · 36% whiffSinker · 19% · 12% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball, Sinker are getting hit hard lately.

STL STARTER

Quinn Mathews

AVERAGE
4.4
PROJECTED Ks
99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 40% · 22% whiffSlider · 23% · 27% whiffChangeup · 16% · 44% whiff

Quinn Mathews grades avg (Pitching+ 99) vs Jake Irvin grades poor (Pitching+ 95)

WSH LINEUP

  1. 1James Wood (L)hit 75% · HR 35%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    75%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    35%

    HOME RUN

    58%

    2+ BASES

    44%

    3+ BASES

    38%

    4+ BASES

    46%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    62%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Daylen Lile (L)hit 70% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Abimelec Ortiz (L)hit 63% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4CJ Abrams (L)hit 68% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Dylan Crews (R)hit 59% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jorbit Vivas (L)hit 59% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Andrés Chaparro (R)hit 66% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Keibert Ruiz (S)hit 64% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Nasim Nuñez (S)hit 51% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

STL LINEUP

  1. 1José Fermín (R)hit 61% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Iván Herrera (R)hit 61% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jordan Walker (R)hit 68% · HR 22%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Leo Bernal (S)hit 66% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Thomas Saggese (R)hit 61% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Masyn Winn (R)hit 57% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Nathan Church (L)hit 58% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Pedro Pagés (R)hit 50% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Victor Scott II (L)hit 50% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

WSH STL

Game Markets

WSH @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

STL -1.5

42%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

39%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

49%

THE READ

STL projects to outscore WSH by 0.78 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.10, STL 4.88
  • Jake Irvin (WSH) vs Quinn Mathews (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JI

Jake Irvin

WSH SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

23%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 34% to reach 5+ against STL
QM

Quinn Mathews

STL SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

47%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against WSH
JW

James Wood

WSH · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

35%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

62%

Total Bases

3+ bases

47%

Total Bases

4+ bases

40%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
AC

Andrés Chaparro

WSH · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
CA

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Jake Irvin
DL

Daylen Lile

WSH · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
LB

Leo Bernal

STL · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jake Irvin
AO

Abimelec Ortiz

WSH · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 37% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
KR

Keibert Ruiz

WSH · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Irvin
TS

Thomas Saggese

STL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jake Irvin
JF

José Fermín

STL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Irvin
DC

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
JV

Jorbit Vivas

WSH · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jake Irvin
MW

Masyn Winn

STL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Irvin
NN

Nasim Nuñez

WSH · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
PP

Pedro Pagés

STL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Irvin
VI

Victor Scott II

STL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Irvin

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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