AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

ATH vs CLE

ATH at Cleveland Guardians

Sunday, September 20, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the ATH @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ATH

0·0

CLEVELANDCLE

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

ATH Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.7

SL83.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

ATH Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · ATH LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CLE to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CLE -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CLE

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CLE wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYATH Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 26 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECLE

ATH STARTER

Jack Perkins

AVERAGE

5.3
PROJECTED Ks: 99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 30% · 16% whiffSweeper · 29% · 38% whiffChangeup · 19% · 38% whiff

CLE STARTER

Gavin Williams

GOOD

9.1
PROJECTED Ks: 110
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 28% · 44% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 32% whiffCurveball · 23% · 32% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

Gavin Williams grades good (Pitching+ 110) vs Jack Perkins grades avg (Pitching+ 99)

ATH LINEUP

Lineup not posted yet — check back closer to first pitch.

CLE LINEUP

1Steven Kwan (L)hit 66% · HR 5%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
2José Ramírez (S)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
3Chase DeLauter (L)hit 65% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
4Jo Adell (R)hit 59% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
5Travis Bazzana (L)hit 55% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Nathaniel Lowe (L)hit 55% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
7Angel Martínez (S)hit 50% · HR 10%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
8Patrick Bailey (S)hit 47% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
9Angel Genao (S)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

ATH CLE

Game Markets

ATH @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

30%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

33%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

38%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

25%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

33%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore ATH by 0.54 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: ATH 3.14, CLE 3.68
Jack Perkins (ATH) vs Gavin Williams (CLE)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Jack Perkins

ATH SP · vs. CLE

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

37%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
61% to reach 5+ against CLE

Gavin Williams

CLE SP · vs. ATH

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

97%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

59%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

48%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

34%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

21%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 9.1 strikeouts
97% to reach 5+ against ATH

Chase DeLauter

CLE · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jack Perkins

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Jack Perkins

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jack Perkins

Nathaniel Lowe

CLE · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Facing Jack Perkins

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jack Perkins

José Ramírez

CLE · bats S · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

Batting 2 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jack Perkins

Angel Martínez

CLE · bats S · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 53%.

Batting 7 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jack Perkins

Angel Genao

CLE · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 59%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jack Perkins

Patrick Bailey

CLE · bats S · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 59%.

Batting 8 · bats S
Facing Jack Perkins

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.