MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Yordan Alvarez · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
on-base rate + supporting cast = runs
Hunter Brown · Under 6.5 <7 Pitcher Ks
modest K rate + contact-shy opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
ATL @ HOU · full-game reads
Moneyline
HOU to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
HOU F5
51%
Game Total
Over 8.5
45%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
HOU -1.5
42%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
35%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
45%
THE READ
HOU projects to outscore ATL by 0.66 runs across 5,000 trials.
ATL SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
67%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
35%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
HOU SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
48%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
6%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
38%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
24%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.
HOU · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
HOU · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
HOU · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
HOU · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
HOU · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
HOU · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
ATL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
HOU · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
HOU · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.
HOU · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 13%.
ATL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 61%.
ATL · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 61%.
ATL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 61%.
ATL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
40%
Hits
2+ hits
8%
Total Bases
2+ bases
17%
Total Bases
3+ bases
8%
Total Bases
4+ bases
5%
RBIs
1+ RBI
15%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 40% against 61%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Hitter-friendly zone · slight edge to batter props.
Mean score sim 3.9–4.6 · projected total 8.5 runs · built on locked lineups
That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.
Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read
BetFly publishes sports predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial, investment, or wagering advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Not available in all states.