Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Patrick Sandoval · Under 15.5 <16 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Patrick Sandoval · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Patrick Sandoval · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Griffin Jax · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Griffin Jax · Over 5.5 6+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Mickey Gasper · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
reaches base often, gets pushed across
Trevor Story · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
middle-order grinder running hot
Mickey Gasper · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
middle-order grinder running hot
Isiah Kiner-Falefa · Under 0.5 <1 RBIs
lineup spot does the work — RBIs come
Chandler Simpson · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
lineup spot + form pushes Over
Caleb Durbin · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
hot stretch + soft matchup
Adley Rutschman · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
L30 contact rate + matchup
Victor Mesa Jr. · Over 1.5 2+ TB
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
BOS @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
66%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
53%
Game Total
Over 8.5
30%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
37%
Run Line
TB -1.5
46%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
21%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
38%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore BOS by 1.25 runs across 5,000 trials.
BOS SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
46%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
TB SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
78%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
12%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
78%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
11%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
30%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
16%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
TB · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TB · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TB · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TB · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BOS · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TB · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BOS · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 21% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BOS · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
46%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 46%.
TB · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
TB · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.
BOS · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.
BOS · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 56%.
BOS · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 56%.
BOS · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 56%.
BOS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 56%.
TB · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
44%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
21%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 56%.
BOS · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
40%
Hits
2+ hits
8%
Total Bases
2+ bases
18%
Total Bases
3+ bases
9%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
16%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 40% against 56%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Interim park post-Tropicana damage.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 2.8–4.1 · projected total 6.9 runs · built on locked lineups
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