AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCHC vs CIN
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Sunday, September 20, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CHC @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CHC Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CHC Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CHC LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CIN to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CIN -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CIN
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CIN wins F5
event 1 / 20 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDChicago C wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical
GAME TOTAL
✗ MISSEDCIN Over 4.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 35-for-95 (.368) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career · hitter-friendly park
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
CHC STARTER
David Peterson
SHAKY- 4.9
- PROJECTED Ks
- 94
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.
CIN STARTER
Rhett Lowder
SHAKY- 2.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 93
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.
Rhett Lowder grades poor (Pitching+ 93) vs David Peterson grades poor (Pitching+ 94)
CHC LINEUP
1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 76% · HR 37%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
76%
1+ HIT
43%
2+ HITS
37%
HOME RUN
60%
2+ BASES
48%
3+ BASES
41%
4+ BASES
50%
RBI
25%
2+ RBIs
66%
SCORES A RUN
2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 73% · HR 26%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
37%
2+ HITS
26%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
37%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
3Michael Busch (L)hit 68% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
4Alex Bregman (R)hit 68% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
5Ian Happ (S)hit 67% · HR 24%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
6Nico Hoerner (R)hit 69% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
7Michael Conforto (L)hit 67% · HR 24%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
8Pedro Ramírez (S)hit 64% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
9Miguel Amaya (R)hit 58% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
CIN LINEUP
1Dane Myers (R)hit 70% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
56%
SCORES A RUN
2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 78% · HR 32%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
78%
1+ HIT
45%
2+ HITS
32%
HOME RUN
60%
2+ BASES
46%
3+ BASES
37%
4+ BASES
47%
RBI
25%
2+ RBIs
63%
SCORES A RUN
3Sal Stewart (R)hit 74% · HR 27%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
31%
4+ BASES
48%
RBI
25%
2+ RBIs
55%
SCORES A RUN
4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 66% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
5JJ Bleday (L)hit 62% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
6Matt McLain (R)hit 58% · HR 16%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
7Oswaldo Cabrera (S)hit 61% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
8Will Banfield (R)hit 63% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
9Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)hit 56% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/moIII · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CHC @ CIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
CHC to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
CIN F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
75%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
75%
Run Line
CIN -1.5
36%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
64%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
62%
THE READ
CHC projects to outscore CIN by 0.27 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CHC 6.27, CIN 6.00
- David Peterson (CHC) vs Rhett Lowder (CIN)
- Run on confirmed lineups
David Peterson
CHC SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
60%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
77%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
65%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
- 56% to reach 5+ against CIN
Rhett Lowder
CIN SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
16%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
53%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
40%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.5 strikeouts
- 10% to reach 5+ against CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
37%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
51%
Total Bases
4+ bases
44%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
40%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 40% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing David Peterson
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing David Peterson
Seiya Suzuki
CHC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Ian Happ
CHC · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Michael Conforto
CHC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Dane Myers
CIN · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing David Peterson
Tyler Stephenson
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing David Peterson
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing David Peterson
Nico Hoerner
CHC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Michael Busch
CHC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Alex Bregman
CHC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Pedro Ramírez
CHC · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Will Banfield
CIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing David Peterson
Oswaldo Cabrera
CIN · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Facing David Peterson
Matt McLain
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 34% against 38%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing David Peterson
Miguel Amaya
CHC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Ke'Bryan Hayes
CIN · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing David Peterson
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.