Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox · AI Model Read · Sunday, September 20, 2026

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DETROITDET

74-85 · +4 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 4-6 L10

@SUN 2:10 PM ETCWS HOME PARK

82-77 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 6-4 L10

CHICAGOCWS

Weather

—

Home plate ump

Nate Tomlinson K-1.0%

Injuries

No injury concerns

Series so far

4-game set · 1-3 so far in 2026

— PITCHING MATCHUP

Troy Melton

RHP · DETPROBABLE

STUFF+99

ERA

2.76

114.1

K/9

7.4

BB/9

2.9

WHIP

1.13

L5 STARTS7.14 ERA · 15.7% K · 7.8% BB

PITCH MIX · SEASON

38%

19%

4-Seam FastballSliderCutterSplit-FingerSinker

Davis Martin

RHP · CWSPROBABLE

STUFF+90

ERA

3.84

145.1

K/9

7.5

BB/9

2.8

WHIP

1.29

L5 STARTS2.10 ERA · 14.3% K · 7.7% BB▲ TRENDING

PITCH MIX · SEASON

26%

18%

15%

14%

13%

4-Seam FastballSinkerChangeupSliderCutterCurveball

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS14 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Troy Melton · Over 15.5 16+ Outs

long-leash spot vs softer opp

+129 DraftKings44% book67% +24pp

Davis Martin · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

high-K profile + cooperative opp

-108 FanDuel52% book73% +21pp

Davis Martin · Over 14.5 15+ Outs

elite efficiency, gets the bulk innings

-104 DraftKings51% book69% +18pp

Davis Martin · Over 13.5 14+ Outs

starter going deep into a manageable lineup

-182 BetRivers65% book82% +17pp

Sam Antonacci · Over 0.5 1+ Runs

on-base profile + lineup behind

+117 DraftKings46% book57% +11pp

Miguel Vargas · Over 0.5 1+ Runs

on-base rate + supporting cast = runs

+111 DraftKings47% book57% +10pp

Eduardo Valencia · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

hot bat in run-producing spot

+205 DraftKings33% book43% +10pp

Brett Callahan · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

hot bat vs Martin

-106 DraftKings51% book60% +9pp

Brett Callahan · Over 1.5 2+ TB

matchup grade unlocks TB upside

+280 BetRivers26% book35% +8pp

Brett Callahan · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

cleanup spot + hot bat = RBI machine

+326 DraftKings23% book31% +7pp

Brenton Doyle · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

hot stretch + soft matchup

+107 BetRivers48% book55% +7pp

Brenton Doyle · Over 1.5 2+ TB

vs this arm — career SLG over .500

+330 BetRivers23% book29% +6pp

Riley Greene · Over 1.5 2+ TB

extra-base profile vs vulnerable starter

+165 BetRivers38% book44% +6pp

Chase Meidroth · Over 1.5 2+ TB

matchup grade unlocks TB upside

+290 BetRivers26% book31% +5pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETTigers 58%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

DET CWS

Game Markets

DET @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

56%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

28%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

55%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

DET projects to outscore CWS by 1.08 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: DET 5.36, CWS 4.27
Troy Melton (DET) vs Davis Martin (CWS)
Run on confirmed lineups

Troy Melton

DET SP · vs. CWS

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

73%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

29%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
51% to reach 5+ against CWS

Davis Martin

CWS SP · vs. DET

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

26%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
24% to reach 5+ against DET

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Troy Melton

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Davis Martin

Eduardo Valencia

DET · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Davis Martin

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Troy Melton

Spencer Torkelson

DET · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Davis Martin

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Davis Martin

Gleyber Torres

DET · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Davis Martin

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Davis Martin

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Troy Melton

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Troy Melton

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Davis Martin

Brett Callahan

DET · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Davis Martin

Kyle Teel

CWS · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing Troy Melton

Andrew Benintendi

CWS · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Troy Melton

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Troy Melton

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 65%.

Batting 8 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Troy Melton

John Peck

DET · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 65%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Davis Martin

Brenton Doyle

CWS · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 65%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Troy Melton

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

TROY MELTON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.5%OPS-against.544

vs Left-handedK%18.3%OPS-against.750

CWS vs RHP (team)OPS.716K%24.1%

DAVIS MARTIN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.6%OPS-against.707

vs Left-handedK%18.6%OPS-against.722

DET vs RHP (team)OPS.724K%22.6%

— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CWS BATTERS vs TROY MELTON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

DET BATTERS vs DAVIS MARTIN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY

THIS SERIES

DET 1·CWS 3

4-game set · gm 4 of 4

2026 SEASON

DET 4·CWS 9

13 played · 6 remaining

ALL-TIME (2010-)

51%DET

DET 155 · CWS 146 · since 2010

NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS

2026-09-20CWS 8-1 · Blowout

2026-09-19CWS 3-1

2026-09-18DET 11-8 · Slugfest

— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Moneyline

DET38¢ · 38%

CWS70¢ · 70%

Total 6.5

Over55¢ · 55%

Under52¢ · 52%

Run line ±1.5

DET -1.5— · —

CWS +1.5— · —

First 5 innings

O 4.5— · —

U 4.5— · —

— LINEUP FORM · L15

DET OFFENSE

.336L15 team wOBA

+20 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

CWS OFFENSE

.302L15 team wOBA

-14 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

— ENVIRONMENT

RATE FIELD

104HR

HR factor1.04 · neutral

Runs factor1.00 · neutral

Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

TOMLINSON

Called K rate-1.0% vs avg

Runs per 9—

Games this yr125

Hitter-friendly zone · slight edge to batter props.

— INJURY REPORTclean

Injury report unavailable.

THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

TIGERS 58%

Mean score sim 5.4–4.3 · projected total 9.6 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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