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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

KC vs PIT

Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Sunday, September 20, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the KC @ PIT simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

KANSAS CITYKC
0·0
PITTSBURGHPIT
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

KC DUGOUTPIT DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

KC Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL85.2
SL85.7
FB94.7
FB95.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

KC Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · KC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PIT to win

39%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PIT -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PIT

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PIT wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYKC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Kansas City wins

61%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEKC
LINEUP EDGEPIT

KC STARTER

Michael Wacha

AVERAGE
4.5
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 20% whiffChangeup · 25% · 28% whiffCutter · 15% · 14% whiff

PIT STARTER

Lake Bachar

SHAKY
4.7
PROJECTED Ks
94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 30% · 16% whiffSlider · 23% · 41% whiffCurveball · 19% · 39% whiff

Lake Bachar grades poor (Pitching+ 94) vs Michael Wacha grades avg (Pitching+ 100)

KC LINEUP

  1. 1Maikel Garcia (R)hit 61% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)hit 69% · HR 15%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 70% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Salvador Perez (R)hit 59% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Michael Massey (L)hit 61% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nick Loftin (R)hit 52% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7John Rave (L)hit 55% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Luke Maile (R)hit 44% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tyler Tolbert (R)hit 56% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

PIT LINEUP

  1. 1Konnor Griffin (R)hit 68% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brandon Lowe (L)hit 72% · HR 28%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 69% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Oneil Cruz (L)hit 69% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nick Gonzales (R)hit 69% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Ryan O'Hearn (L)hit 65% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Rafael Flores Jr. (R)hit 65% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Spencer Horwitz (L)hit 57% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jake Mangum (S)hit 60% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

KC PIT

Game Markets

KC @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

55%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

46%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

39%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

52%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore KC by 1.07 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 4.07, PIT 5.14
  • Michael Wacha (KC) vs Lake Bachar (PIT)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
MW

Michael Wacha

KC SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

75%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

81%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

71%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against PIT
LB

Lake Bachar

PIT SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

34%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

22%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 51% to reach 5+ against KC
BL

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Michael Wacha
OC

Oneil Cruz

PIT · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Michael Wacha
JC

Jac Caglianone

KC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Lake Bachar
RJ

Rafael Flores Jr.

PIT · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Michael Wacha
BJ

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 30% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Lake Bachar
BR

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 30% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Facing Michael Wacha
KG

Konnor Griffin

PIT · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Michael Wacha
RO

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael Wacha
NG

Nick Gonzales

PIT · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Michael Wacha
SP

Salvador Perez

KC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Lake Bachar
JR

John Rave

KC · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Lake Bachar
MG

Maikel Garcia

KC · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Lake Bachar
MM

Michael Massey

KC · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Lake Bachar
JM

Jake Mangum

PIT · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael Wacha
SH

Spencer Horwitz

PIT · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael Wacha
TT

Tyler Tolbert

KC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Lake Bachar
NL

Nick Loftin

KC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 65%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Lake Bachar
LM

Luke Maile

KC · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Lake Bachar

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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