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MIA vs SD

Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres

Sunday, September 20, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIA @ SD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MIAMIMIA
0·0
SAN DIEGOSD
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

MIA DUGOUTSD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIA Leadoff (R) vs HP

CV76.3
FB95.4
FB94.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIA Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SD to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

SD Over 3.5 runs

52%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 20-for-62 (.323) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career · pitcher-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIA
LINEUP EDGESD

MIA STARTER

Sandy Alcantara

AVERAGE
2.9
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 26% · 12% whiffChangeup · 21% · 28% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 18% · 20% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

SD STARTER

Walker Buehler

AVERAGE
3.8
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 24% · 18% whiffSinker · 20% · 11% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 20% · 14% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Walker Buehler grades avg (Pitching+ 97) vs Sandy Alcantara grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

MIA LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Stowers (L)hit 68% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Otto Lopez (R)hit 70% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Griffin Conine (L)hit 69% · HR 30%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    46%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Heriberto Hernández (R)hit 65% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jakob Marsee (L)hit 59% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Javier Sanoja (R)hit 65% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Graham Pauley (L)hit 53% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Joe Mack (L)hit 56% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Deyvison De Los Santos (R)hit 52% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

SD LINEUP

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 75% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    75%

    1+ HIT

    40%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Dustin Harris (L)hit 70% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Manny Machado (R)hit 65% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ty France (R)hit 71% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 70% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 60% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 55% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Samad Taylor (R)hit 65% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ethan Salas (L)hit 59% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIA SD

Game Markets

MIA @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

60%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

61%

Run Line

SD -1.5

39%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

53%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore MIA by 0.31 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.90, SD 5.21
  • Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs Walker Buehler (SD)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
SA

Sandy Alcantara

MIA SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 16% to reach 5+ against SD
WB

Walker Buehler

SD SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

90%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

47%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against MIA
GC

Griffin Conine

MIA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Walker Buehler
KS

Kyle Stowers

MIA · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Walker Buehler
FJ

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
HH

Heriberto Hernández

MIA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Walker Buehler
MM

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
JM

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
TF

Ty France

SD · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
OL

Otto Lopez

MIA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Walker Buehler
DH

Dustin Harris

SD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
ST

Samad Taylor

SD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
JM

Joe Mack

MIA · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Walker Buehler
JS

Javier Sanoja

MIA · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walker Buehler
ES

Ethan Salas

SD · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
XB

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 67%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
JM

Jakob Marsee

MIA · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 67%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walker Buehler
JC

Jake Cronenworth

SD · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 67%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sandy Alcantara
GP

Graham Pauley

MIA · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 29% against 34%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Walker Buehler
DS

Deyvison De Los Santos

MIA · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 67%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Walker Buehler

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.