MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Jacob Misiorowski · Over 8.5 9+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Brandon Young · Over 15.5 16+ Outs
starter going deep into a manageable lineup
Pete Alonso · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
OBP guy in the scoring seat
Jackson Chourio · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
reaches base often, gets pushed across
Brandon Young · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Brice Turang · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
walks his way around the bases
Colton Cowser · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
L30 contact rate + matchup
Jake Bauers · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
L30 RBI pace + matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
MIL @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
75%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
17%
Game Total
Over 8.5
37%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
42%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
13%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
52%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
16%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore BAL by 2.65 runs across 5,000 trials.
MIL SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
98%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
94%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
87%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
77%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
63%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
72%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
27%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
18%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
9%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
BAL SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
72%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
41%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
MIL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIL · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 21% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
BAL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
44%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 12%.
BAL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 56%.
BAL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
15%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 56%.
BAL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
16%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 56%.
BAL · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
40%
Hits
2+ hits
8%
Total Bases
2+ bases
17%
Total Bases
3+ bases
8%
Total Bases
4+ bases
5%
RBIs
1+ RBI
12%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
3%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 40% against 56%.
BAL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
32%
Hits
2+ hits
5%
Total Bases
2+ bases
13%
Total Bases
3+ bases
6%
Total Bases
4+ bases
5%
RBIs
1+ RBI
11%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
3%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 32% against 56%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 5.1–2.4 · projected total 7.5 runs · built on locked lineups
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