AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIN vs LAA

Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels

Sunday, September 20, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIN @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MINNESOTAMIN

0·0

LOS ANGELESLAA

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL83.6

FB91.9

FB93.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIN Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAA to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAA wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYMIN Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 15 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN

LINEUP EDGEMIN

MIN STARTER

Dean Kremer

SHAKY

6.6
PROJECTED Ks: 87
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 28% · 18% whiffSplit-Finger · 26% · 39% whiffCutter · 17% · 36% whiff

LAA STARTER

Ryan Johnson

SHAKY

3.9
PROJECTED Ks: 87
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 38% · 24% whiffSweeper · 22% · 30% whiffSplit-Finger · 21% · 32% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

Ryan Johnson grades poor (Pitching+ 87) vs Dean Kremer grades poor (Pitching+ 87)

MIN LINEUP

1Walker Jenkins (L)hit 64% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
2Brooks Lee (S)hit 67% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
3Kody Clemens (L)hit 69% · HR 24%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
27%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
4Josh Bell (S)hit 68% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
5Alan Roden (L)hit 62% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
6Royce Lewis (R)hit 61% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
7Victor Caratini (S)hit 58% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
8Emmanuel Rodriguez (L)hit 62% · HR 14%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
9Ben Ross (R)hit 57% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN

LAA LINEUP

1Zach Neto (R)hit 61% · HR 21%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
2Mike Trout (R)hit 63% · HR 22%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3Wade Meckler (L)hit 65% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
4Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 57% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
5Moisés Ballesteros (L)hit 57% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
6Denzer Guzman (R)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
7Josh Lowe (L)hit 52% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
8Jose Siri (R)hit 53% · HR 17%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
9Christian Moore (R)hit 44% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
44%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
17%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIN LAA

Game Markets

MIN @ LAA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

LAA F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

LAA -1.5

27%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

MIN projects to outscore LAA by 0.97 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: MIN 4.86, LAA 3.89
Dean Kremer (MIN) vs Ryan Johnson (LAA)
Run on confirmed lineups

Dean Kremer

MIN SP · vs. LAA

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

19%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

91%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 6.6 strikeouts
83% to reach 5+ against LAA

Ryan Johnson

LAA SP · vs. MIN

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

52%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
35% to reach 5+ against MIN

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing Ryan Johnson

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Facing Dean Kremer

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing Dean Kremer

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats S
Facing Ryan Johnson

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats S
Facing Ryan Johnson

Walker Jenkins

MIN · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Ryan Johnson

Wade Meckler

LAA · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing Dean Kremer

Jose Siri

LAA · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Dean Kremer

Emmanuel Rodriguez

MIN · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 8 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Ryan Johnson

Alan Roden

MIN · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ryan Johnson

Moisés Ballesteros

LAA · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Dean Kremer

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ryan Johnson

Josh Lowe

LAA · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Dean Kremer

Vaughn Grissom

LAA · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Dean Kremer

Victor Caratini

MIN · bats S · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

Batting 7 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ryan Johnson

Ben Ross

MIN · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Ryan Johnson

Denzer Guzman

LAA · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Dean Kremer

Christian Moore

LAA · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 62%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Dean Kremer

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.