Not yet announced by the team.
Not yet announced by the team.
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Geraldo Perdomo · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
vs this arm — career SLG over .500
Will Warren · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
K projection runs under in this matchup
Cody Bellinger · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Ben Rice · Over 0.5 1+ HR
hot power, Burnes hittable
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
NYY @ ARI · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
ARI F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
52%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
56%
Run Line
ARI -1.5
35%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
ARI Over 4.5
44%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.10 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
NYY SP · vs. ARI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
78%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
36%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
61%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
ARI SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
6%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
31%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
19%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
NYY · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYY · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 23% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYY · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYY · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYY · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.
NYY · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
ARI · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
ARI · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
NYY · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
ARI · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.
ARI · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.
NYY · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.
NYY · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 63%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits LHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight offensive tilt.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Mean score sim 4.6–4.5 · projected total 9.1 runs · built on locked lineups
That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.
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