MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Jonah Tong · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Bo Bichette · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
hot stretch + soft matchup
Bo Bichette · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
vs this arm — career SLG over .500
Francisco Lindor · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
hot stretch + soft matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
PHI @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
63%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
31%
Game Total
Over 8.5
39%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
42%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
22%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
45%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
26%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore NYM by 1.41 runs across 5,000 trials.
PHI SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
95%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
87%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
75%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
43%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
98%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
NYM SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
6%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
64%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
66%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
PHI · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 51%.
PHI · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
PHI · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
PHI · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
NYM · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
NYM · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 12%.
NYM · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 60%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Deep OF, dead air.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 4.6–3.2 · projected total 7.7 runs · built on locked lineups
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