AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

SEA vs COL

Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies

Sunday, September 20, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SEA @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SEATTLESEA

0·0

COLORADOCOL

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

SEA Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB96.4

CV76.8

CH82.8

CV78.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SEA Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · SEA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

COL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

COL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL COL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

COL wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYSEA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESEA

LINEUP EDGESEA

SEA STARTER

Kade Anderson

AVERAGE

4.0
PROJECTED Ks: 102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 42% · 18% whiffSlider · 26% · 23% whiffChangeup · 18% · 27% whiff

COL STARTER

Tomoyuki Sugano

SHAKY

2.0
PROJECTED Ks: 89
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Split-Finger · 21% · 31% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 21% · 17% whiffSinker · 19% · 6% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball, Sinker are getting hit hard lately.

Tomoyuki Sugano grades poor (Pitching+ 89) vs Kade Anderson grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

SEA LINEUP

1J.P. Crawford (L)hit 70% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
2Randy Arozarena (R)hit 76% · HR 27%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
76%
1+ HIT
42%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
56%
2+ BASES
40%
3+ BASES
32%
4+ BASES
44%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
61%
SCORES A RUN
3Dominic Canzone (L)hit 77% · HR 30%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
77%
1+ HIT
42%
2+ HITS
30%
HOME RUN
59%
2+ BASES
45%
3+ BASES
36%
4+ BASES
49%
RBI
27%
2+ RBIs
56%
SCORES A RUN
4Cal Raleigh (S)hit 67% · HR 27%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
44%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
5Julio Rodríguez (R)hit 71% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
6Josh Naylor (L)hit 70% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
7Cole Young (L)hit 65% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
8Lazaro Montes (L)hit 61% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
9Brock Rodden (S)hit 61% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN

COL LINEUP

1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 74% · HR 15%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
2Connor Norby (R)hit 67% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
3Hunter Goodman (R)hit 69% · HR 27%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
35%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
43%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
4TJ Rumfield (L)hit 68% · HR 12%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
5Cole Carrigg (S)hit 67% · HR 12%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
6Adael Amador (S)hit 64% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
7Brett Sullivan (L)hit 61% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
8Jordan Beck (R)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
9Ezequiel Tovar (R)hit 54% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SEA COL

Game Markets

SEA @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

66%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

66%

Run Line

COL -1.5

28%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

62%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

49%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore COL by 1.17 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: SEA 6.03, COL 4.85
Kade Anderson (SEA) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (COL)
Run on confirmed lineups

Kade Anderson

SEA SP · vs. COL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

82%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

46%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

59%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
36% to reach 5+ against COL

Tomoyuki Sugano

COL SP · vs. SEA

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

31%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 2.0 strikeouts
5% to reach 5+ against SEA

Dominic Canzone

SEA · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

80%

Hits

2+ hits

45%

Total Bases

2+ bases

62%

Total Bases

3+ bases

47%

Total Bases

4+ bases

38%

RBIs

1+ RBI

51%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

28%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Tomoyuki Sugano

Cal Raleigh

SEA · bats S · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Tomoyuki Sugano

Hunter Goodman

COL · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Kade Anderson

Randy Arozarena

SEA · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

44%

Total Bases

2+ bases

60%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Tomoyuki Sugano

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 40% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kade Anderson

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Tomoyuki Sugano

J.P. Crawford

SEA · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Tomoyuki Sugano

Josh Naylor

SEA · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Tomoyuki Sugano

Adael Amador

COL · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kade Anderson

Connor Norby

COL · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kade Anderson

TJ Rumfield

COL · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kade Anderson

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.

Batting 5 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kade Anderson

Cole Young

SEA · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Tomoyuki Sugano

Brock Rodden

SEA · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Tomoyuki Sugano

Lazaro Montes

SEA · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Tomoyuki Sugano

Brett Sullivan

COL · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 70%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Kade Anderson

Jordan Beck

COL · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 70%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kade Anderson

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 70%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Kade Anderson

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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