MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS
Under 2.5 (F5) · f5_total
both starters dominant (deGrom / Miles)
Under 5.5 (F5) · f5_total
both starters dominant (deGrom / Miles)
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Jacob deGrom · Over 5.5 6+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Kazuma Okamoto · Over 0.5 1+ HR
barrel rate spike vs vulnerable RHP
Ezequiel Duran · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
hot stretch + soft matchup
Josh Smith · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
lineup spot + form pushes Over
Ezequiel Duran · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
platoon split + park combine for TB ceiling
Josh Smith · Over 1.5 2+ TB
vs this arm — career SLG over .500
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
TOR @ TEX · full-game reads
Moneyline
TEX to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
TEX F5
49%
Game Total
Over 8.5
25%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
29%
Run Line
TEX -1.5
37%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
22%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
28%
THE READ
TEX projects to outscore TOR by 0.44 runs across 5,000 trials.
TOR SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
27%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
38%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
25%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
TEX SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
76%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
59%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
15%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
41%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
9%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
26%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
15%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
TOR · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TEX · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TEX · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TEX · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TEX · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 8% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TOR · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TOR · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TOR · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TEX · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
TEX · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
TEX · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
TOR · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
TOR · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 9% against 10%.
TOR · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 57%.
TOR · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 8% against 10%.
TOR · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 57%.
TEX · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
44%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 18% against 23%.
TEX · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
43%
Hits
2+ hits
9%
Total Bases
2+ bases
19%
Total Bases
3+ bases
9%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
16%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 43% against 57%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral with roof.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 2.9–3.4 · projected total 6.3 runs · built on locked lineups
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