BETFLYAISIGN IN
WASHINGTONWSH
75-84 · +4 NL EAST · W2 · 7-3 L10
@SUN 2:15 PM ETSTL HOME PARK
77-82 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
ST. LOUISSTL
Weather
—
Home plate ump
Mark Ripperger K-0.8%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jake Irvin
RHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
5.40
IP
101.2
K/9
9.2
BB/9
4.1
WHIP
1.37
L5 STARTS4.23 ERA · 26.2% K · 12.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
26%
24%
11%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSinkerCutterSweeper
Quinn Mathews
LHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.65
IP
44.1
K/9
7.9
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.38
L5 STARTS2.45 ERA · 21% K · 8.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Quinn Mathews · Under 17.5 <18 Outs

walk-prone, opp lineup turns pitch counts ugly

-130 Fanatics57% book83% +27pp

Jake Irvin · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

punch-out artist with the right matchup

-118 BetMGM54% book72% +18pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCardinals 57%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

WSH STL

Game Markets

WSH @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

STL -1.5

40%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

STL projects to outscore WSH by 0.51 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.41, STL 4.92
  • Jake Irvin (WSH) vs Quinn Mathews (STL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
JI

Jake Irvin

WSH SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

18%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 26% to reach 5+ against STL
QM

Quinn Mathews

STL SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

78%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

28%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
  • 59% to reach 5+ against WSH
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Jake Irvin
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Jake Irvin
LB

Leo Bernal

STL · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jake Irvin
AC

Andrés Chaparro

WSH · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
JW

James Wood

WSH · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
BH

Brady House

WSH · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Jake Irvin
CA

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
JW

JJ Wetherholt

STL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Irvin
DL

Daylen Lile

WSH · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
DC

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
TS

Thomas Saggese

STL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jake Irvin
BT

Bryan Torres

STL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Irvin
JF

José Fermín

STL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Jake Irvin
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Jake Irvin
JY

Jacob Young

WSH · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
HF

Harry Ford

WSH · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
NN

Nasim Nuñez

WSH · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JAKE IRVIN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%24.0%OPS-against.829
vs Left-handedK%22.8%OPS-against.706
STL vs LHP (team)OPS.712K%19.5%

QUINN MATHEWS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.4%OPS-against.690
vs Left-handedK%28.8%OPS-against.717
WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.732K%20.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

STL BATTERS vs JAKE IRVIN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs QUINN MATHEWS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 2·STL 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
WSH 7·STL 5
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%STL
WSH 87 · STL 121 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-20STL 5-3
2026-09-19WSH 8-5
2026-09-19WSH 9-1 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH51¢ · 51%
STL56¢ · 56%
Total 8.5
Over57¢ · 57%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5— · —
STL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.282L15 team wOBA
-34 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

STL OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT
BUSCH STADIUM
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
RIPPERGER
Called K rate-0.8% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr328

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

CARDINALS 57%

Mean score sim 4.4–4.9 · projected total 9.3 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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