BETFLYAISIGN IN
MINNESOTAMIN
75-84 · +3 AL CENTRAL · W2 · 5-5 L10
@MON 9:45 PM ETSF HOME PARK
65-94 · +4 NL WEST · L2 · 3-7 L10
SAN FRANCISCOSF
Weather
—
Home plate ump
Andy Fletcher K+0.6%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Zebby Matthews
RHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
4.90
IP
130.1
K/9
8.0
BB/9
2.7
WHIP
1.26
L5 STARTS5.15 ERA · 25.9% K · 6.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
21%
14%
13%
12%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballCutterChangeupSinker
Blade Tidwell
RHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+113
ERA
4.45
IP
56.2
K/9
7.3
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.18
L5 STARTS5.79 ERA · 18.3% K · 8.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
41%
4-Seam FastballSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Blade Tidwell · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

-160 Fanatics62% book84% +22pp

Zebby Matthews · Over 15.5 16+ Outs

elite efficiency, gets the bulk innings

+100 BetMGM50% book69% +19pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGiants 51%

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

MIN SF

Game Markets

MIN @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

SF -1.5

34%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.38 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIN 4.21, SF 4.17
  • Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs Blade Tidwell (SF)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TB

Taj Bradley

MIN SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

25%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

91%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

52%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.0 strikeouts
  • 87% to reach 5+ against SF
AM

Anthony Molina

SF SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

40%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against MIN
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Anthony Molina
RJ

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Anthony Molina
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Facing Anthony Molina
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Anthony Molina
WJ

Walker Jenkins

MIN · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Anthony Molina
AS

Aaron Sabato

MIN · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Anthony Molina
AR

Alan Roden

MIN · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Anthony Molina
ER

Emmanuel Rodriguez

MIN · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Anthony Molina
RK

Ryan Kreidler

MIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Anthony Molina
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ZEBBY MATTHEWS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.1%OPS-against.704
vs Left-handedK%22.2%OPS-against.790
SF vs RHP (team)OPS.730K%21.2%

BLADE TIDWELL SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.9%OPS-against.441
vs Left-handedK%13.0%OPS-against.880
MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.736K%20.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SF BATTERS vs ZEBBY MATTHEWS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIN BATTERS vs BLADE TIDWELL

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIN 2·SF 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIN 2·SF 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
54%MIN
MIN 13 · SF 11 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-23MIN 4-2
2026-09-23MIN 3-2 · One-run game
2026-09-22SF 5-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIN61¢ · 61%
SF44¢ · 44%
Total 7.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
MIN -1.5— · —
SF +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIN OFFENSE

.273L15 team wOBA
-43 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

SF OFFENSE

.301L15 team wOBA
-16 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT
ORACLE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.90 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Marine air kills carry to RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
FLETCHER
Called K rate+0.6% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr307

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

GIANTS 51%

Mean score sim 4.2–4.2 · projected total 8.4 runs · partial lineups — will refresh

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