MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Trey Yesavage · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Trey Yesavage · Over 2.5 3+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Shane Baz · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Brett Bateman · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
OBP guy in the scoring seat
Shane Baz · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup
Ernie Clement · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
hot bat vs Baz
Alejandro Kirk · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
leadoff spot, 2-3-4 drives him in
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
TOR @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
48%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
39%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
45%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
33%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
36%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
36%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 7.76 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
TOR SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
21%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
44%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
30%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
BAL SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
51%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
BAL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TOR · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TOR · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TOR · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TOR · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TOR · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
TOR · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
TOR · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
TOR · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
BAL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 50%.
BAL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
TOR · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 59%.
BAL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.
BAL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
44%
Hits
2+ hits
9%
Total Bases
2+ bases
21%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 59%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 3.9–3.9 · projected total 7.8 runs · built on locked lineups
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