Not yet announced by the team.
Not yet announced by the team.
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Kyle Freeland · Over 2.5 3+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Jake McCarthy · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
on-base rate + supporting cast = runs
Connor Norby · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
OBP edge + ballpark + lineup
Ketel Marte · Under 2.5 <3 Total Bases
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Ildemaro Vargas · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
power matchup vs Freeland
Gabriel Moreno · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Nolan Arenado · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
platoon split + park combine for TB ceiling
Geraldo Perdomo · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
vs this arm — career SLG over .500
Ketel Marte · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Hunter Goodman · Over 0.5 1+ HR
matchup grade lights up the HR pricing
Jake McCarthy · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
vs this arm — career SLG over .500
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
ARI @ COL · full-game reads
Moneyline
ARI to win
52%
1st 5 Innings
COL F5
47%
Game Total
Over 8.5
76%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
76%
Run Line
COL -1.5
35%
Team Total
ARI Over 4.5
66%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
62%
THE READ
ARI projects to outscore COL by 0.50 runs across 5,000 trials.
ARI SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
38%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
9%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
COL SP · vs. ARI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
4%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits LHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Altitude — extreme run environment.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Mean score sim 6.5–6.0 · projected total 12.5 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post
That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.
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