AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCLE vs BOS
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, September 22, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CLE @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Steven Kwan (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Steven Kwan in this spot
BATTER PROPS · STEVEN KWAN
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BOS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BOS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BOS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BOS wins F5
event 1 / 79 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDCleveland wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
CLE STARTER
Foster Griffin
AVERAGE- 3.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- 98
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
BOS STARTER
Sonny Gray
AVERAGE- 4.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 103
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Sonny Gray grades avg (Pitching+ 103) vs Foster Griffin grades avg (Pitching+ 98)
CLE LINEUP
1Steven Kwan (L)hit 64% · HR 5%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
2José Ramírez (S)hit 63% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
3Chase DeLauter (L)hit 67% · HR 9%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
4Jo Adell (R)hit 63% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
5Angel Martínez (S)hit 58% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
6David Fry (R)hit 45% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
45%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
7Travis Bazzana (L)hit 52% · HR 8%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
8Austin Hedges (R)hit 47% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
9Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 52% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
BOS LINEUP
1Roman Anthony (L)hit 63% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
2Nick Sogard (S)hit 58% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
3Jahmai Jones (R)hit 59% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
4Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 63% · HR 14%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
5Adley Rutschman (S)hit 57% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
6Caleb Durbin (R)hit 56% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
7Andruw Monasterio (R)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
8Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)hit 52% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
9Nate Eaton (R)hit 44% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
44%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
CLE @ BOS · full-game reads
Moneyline
CLE to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
BOS F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
51%
Run Line
BOS -1.5
31%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
CLE projects to outscore BOS by 0.46 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CLE 4.61, BOS 4.15
- Foster Griffin (CLE) vs Sonny Gray (BOS)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Foster Griffin
CLE SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
45%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
8%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
- 33% to reach 5+ against BOS
Sonny Gray
BOS SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
96%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
62%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
71%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
58%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
- 50% to reach 5+ against CLE
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.