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AI MODEL READ

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HOU vs SEA

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the HOU @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

HOUSTONHOU
0·0
SEATTLESEA
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

HOU DUGOUTSEA DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

HOU Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.4
SL85.5
CT90.7
FB91.9
FB93.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

HOU Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · HOU LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SEA to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SEA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SEA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SEA wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYHOU Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESEA
LINEUP EDGEHOU

HOU STARTER

Cristian Javier

AVERAGE
4.8
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 27% whiffSweeper · 27% · 38% whiffChangeup · 16% · 30% whiff

SEA STARTER

Logan Gilbert

GOOD
7.2
PROJECTED Ks
112
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 40% · 23% whiffSlider · 25% · 37% whiffSplit-Finger · 15% · 41% whiff

Logan Gilbert grades good (Pitching+ 112) vs Cristian Javier grades avg (Pitching+ 100)

HOU LINEUP

  1. 1Jeremy Peña (R)hit 60% · HR 17%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 69% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 55% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jose Altuve (R)hit 51% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Yainer Diaz (R)hit 61% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Christian Walker (R)hit 52% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Taylor Trammell (L)hit 42% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    42%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cam Smith (R)hit 47% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brice Matthews (R)hit 41% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    41%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

SEA LINEUP

  1. 1J.P. Crawford (L)hit 54% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Randy Arozarena (R)hit 59% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dominic Canzone (L)hit 63% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Cal Raleigh (S)hit 46% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Julio Rodríguez (R)hit 56% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Josh Naylor (L)hit 53% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Cole Young (L)hit 50% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Lazaro Montes (L)hit 47% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brock Rodden (S)hit 41% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    41%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

CJ

Cristian Javier

HOU SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

46%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

35%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

22%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 59% to reach 5+ against SEA
LG

Logan Gilbert

SEA SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

29%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

59%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.3 strikeouts
  • 89% to reach 5+ against HOU

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.