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MIA vs CHC

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIA @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MIAMIMIA
0·0
CHICAGOCHC
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

MIA DUGOUTCHC DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Otto Lopez (R) vs HP

SL84.8
FB95.7
FB93
CV77.9
FB92.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Otto Lopez in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · OTTO LOPEZ

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CHC to win

63%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CHC -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CHC

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CHC wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYOtto Lopez at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 83 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Chicago C wins

44%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

CHC Over 4.5 runs

50%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 10-for-26 (.385) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career · 63°F, 15mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECHC
LINEUP EDGECHC

MIA STARTER

Ryan Gusto

AVERAGE
2.9
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 29% · 24% whiffChangeup · 14% · 19% whiffSweeper · 13% · 14% whiff

CHC STARTER

Kevin Gausman

AVERAGE
5.9
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 51% · 15% whiffSplit-Finger · 39% · 42% whiff

Kevin Gausman grades avg (Pitching+ 104) vs Ryan Gusto grades avg (Pitching+ 98)

MIA LINEUP

  1. 1Heriberto Hernández (R)hit 64% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Otto Lopez (R)hit 71% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kyle Stowers (L)hit 62% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Javier Sanoja (R)hit 67% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Agustín Ramírez (R)hit 60% · HR 11%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Esteury Ruiz (R)hit 52% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Griffin Conine (L)hit 62% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Deyvison De Los Santos (R)hit 54% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jared Serna (R)hit 53% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

CHC LINEUP

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 77% · HR 34%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    77%

    1+ HIT

    42%

    2+ HITS

    34%

    HOME RUN

    60%

    2+ BASES

    47%

    3+ BASES

    40%

    4+ BASES

    49%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    64%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 71% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Michael Busch (L)hit 68% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Michael Conforto (L)hit 69% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ian Happ (S)hit 65% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nico Hoerner (R)hit 65% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Pedro Ramírez (S)hit 61% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Carson Kelly (R)hit 60% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Dansby Swanson (R)hit 60% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIA CHC

Game Markets

MIA @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CHC to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

58%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

41%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

53%

THE READ

CHC projects to outscore MIA by 0.45 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.71, CHC 5.15
  • Ryan Gusto (MIA) vs Kevin Gausman (CHC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RG

Ryan Gusto

MIA SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

18%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 16% to reach 5+ against CHC
KG

Kevin Gausman

CHC SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

14%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

79%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

47%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 72% to reach 5+ against MIA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.