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MIL vs PHI

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIL @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MILWAUKEEMIL
0·0
PHILADELPHIAPHI
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

MIL DUGOUTPHI DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Garrett Mitchell (L) vs HP

FB95.8
FB92.9
SL85.8
FB95.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Garrett Mitchell in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · GARRETT MITCHELL

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PHI to win

41%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PHI -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PHI

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PHI wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYGarrett Mitchell at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 76 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Philadelphia wins

56%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

MIL STARTER

Logan Henderson

GOOD
5.4
PROJECTED Ks
107
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 22% whiffChangeup · 35% · 37% whiffCutter · 16% · 21% whiff

PHI STARTER

Aaron Nola

GOOD
5.8
PROJECTED Ks
107
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Curveball · 33% · 41% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 24% · 14% whiffSinker · 18% · 13% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Aaron Nola grades good (Pitching+ 107) vs Logan Henderson grades good (Pitching+ 107)

MIL LINEUP

  1. 1Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 61% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jackson Chourio (R)hit 62% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Brice Turang (L)hit 58% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4William Contreras (R)hit 59% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jake Bauers (L)hit 57% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Christian Yelich (L)hit 52% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Luis Lara (S)hit 48% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cooper Pratt (R)hit 55% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9David Hamilton (L)hit 44% · HR 4%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

PHI LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 61% · HR 29%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Trea Turner (R)hit 57% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Harper (L)hit 65% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Arraez (L)hit 64% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Alec Bohm (R)hit 55% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Bryson Stott (L)hit 52% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brandon Marsh (L)hit 54% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 48% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Justin Crawford (L)hit 51% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIL PHI

Game Markets

MIL @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

35%

Game Total

Over 8.5

35%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

38%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

26%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

27%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore PHI by 0.81 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.08, PHI 3.27
  • Logan Henderson (MIL) vs Aaron Nola (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LH

Logan Henderson

MIL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

51%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

13%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 65% to reach 5+ against PHI
AN

Aaron Nola

PHI SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

54%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 72% to reach 5+ against MIL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.