AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSTL vs PIT
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Tuesday, September 22, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the STL @ PIT simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
JJ Wetherholt (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
JJ Wetherholt in this spot
BATTER PROPS · JJ WETHERHOLT
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
PIT to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
PIT -1.5
TEAM TOTAL PIT
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
PIT wins F5
event 1 / 70 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
STL STARTER
Matthew Liberatore
AVERAGE- 4.4
- PROJECTED Ks
- 95
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
PIT STARTER
Lake Bachar
SHAKY- 5.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 94
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Lake Bachar grades poor (Pitching+ 94) vs Matthew Liberatore grades avg (Pitching+ 95)
STL LINEUP
1JJ Wetherholt (L)hit 59% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
2Iván Herrera (R)hit 59% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
3Alec Burleson (L)hit 66% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
4Jordan Walker (R)hit 63% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
5Leo Bernal (S)hit 60% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Bryan Torres (L)hit 52% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
7Thomas Saggese (R)hit 55% · HR 10%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
8Nathan Church (L)hit 55% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
9Masyn Winn (R)hit 50% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
PIT LINEUP
1Konnor Griffin (R)hit 66% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
2Brandon Lowe (L)hit 71% · HR 24%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
27%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 66% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
4Oneil Cruz (L)hit 68% · HR 23%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
5Rafael Flores Jr. (R)hit 68% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
6Ryan O'Hearn (L)hit 64% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
7Ronny Simon (S)hit 53% · HR 7%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
8Spencer Horwitz (L)hit 56% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
9Jacob Gonzalez (L)hit 53% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/moII · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
STL @ PIT · full-game reads
Moneyline
STL to win
48%
1st 5 Innings
PIT F5
46%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
48%
Run Line
PIT -1.5
35%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
42%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.74 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: STL 4.38, PIT 4.36
- Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs Lake Bachar (PIT)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Matthew Liberatore
STL SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
44%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
8%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
47%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
- 46% to reach 5+ against PIT
Lake Bachar
PIT SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
38%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
10%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
37%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
24%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
- 62% to reach 5+ against STL
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.