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TB vs NYY

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the TB @ NYY simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

TAMPA BAYTB
0·0
NEW YORKNYY
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

TB DUGOUTNYY DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Yandy Díaz (R) vs HP

FB93.7
CT87.9
FB94.7
CH84
SL84.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Yandy Díaz in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · YANDY DÍAZ

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYY to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYY -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYY

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYY wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYYandy Díaz at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 76 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

NYY Over 4.5 runs

49%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · hitter-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYY
LINEUP EDGENYY

TB STARTER

Ian Seymour

AVERAGE
7.6
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 29% · 39% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 26% whiffSweeper · 20% · 32% whiff

NYY STARTER

Gerrit Cole

GOOD
4.9
PROJECTED Ks
106
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 49% · 21% whiffSlider · 20% · 27% whiffCurveball · 14% · 20% whiff

Gerrit Cole grades good (Pitching+ 106) vs Ian Seymour grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

TB LINEUP

  1. 1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 66% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 66% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Junior Caminero (R)hit 67% · HR 26%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Liam Hicks (L)hit 60% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Chandler Simpson (L)hit 66% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jonny DeLuca (R)hit 53% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 60% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jorge Mateo (R)hit 46% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Richie Palacios (L)hit 51% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

NYY LINEUP

  1. 1Ben Rice (L)hit 76% · HR 36%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    76%

    1+ HIT

    41%

    2+ HITS

    36%

    HOME RUN

    59%

    2+ BASES

    46%

    3+ BASES

    39%

    4+ BASES

    46%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    60%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Cody Bellinger (L)hit 70% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Heliot Ramos (R)hit 68% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis García Jr. (L)hit 75% · HR 31%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    75%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    56%

    2+ BASES

    43%

    3+ BASES

    35%

    4+ BASES

    48%

    RBI

    25%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5George Lombard Jr. (R)hit 65% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Spencer Jones (L)hit 68% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Anthony Volpe (R)hit 60% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Ali Sánchez (R)hit 56% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9José Caballero (R)hit 53% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TB NYY

Game Markets

TB @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

31%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore NYY by 0.36 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TB 4.24, NYY 3.89
  • Ian Seymour (TB) vs Gerrit Cole (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
IS

Ian Seymour

TB SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

34%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

60%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.6 strikeouts
  • 89% to reach 5+ against NYY
GC

Gerrit Cole

NYY SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

51%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
  • 55% to reach 5+ against TB

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.